Dundalk FC 1:2 Bohemian FC: xG & match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Friday, 02/10/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Dundalk FC Home 1.20 xG

Bohemian FC Away 1.93 xG

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Bohemian FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Dundalk FC's attack: 1.20 xG against 1.58 projected (−0.38).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Dundalk FC: 32%
Draw: 26%
Bohemian FC: 41% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Dundalk FC 1.58 1.20 -0.38

Bohemian FC 1.78 1.93 +0.15

Dundalk FC produced 0.38 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Dundalk FC Bohemian FC

Shots: 11; 12
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 8; 12
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.16

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Dundalk FC

1.49 xG created 2.08 xGA

L 1.72 created, 2.66 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
L 2.21 created, 0.79 conceded against Galway United
W 3.04 created, 1.89 conceded against Drogheda United
D 0.55 created, 2.04 conceded against Waterford FC
L 0.26 created, 2.94 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
L 1.18 created, 2.18 conceded against Shelbourne

Bohemian FC

1.97 xG created 1.02 xGA

D 2.23 created, 0.24 conceded against Galway United
L 1.04 created, 1.66 conceded against Waterford FC
W 2.32 created, 1.39 conceded against Derry City
W 1.48 created, 0.15 conceded against Sligo Rovers
W 2.77 created, 1.84 conceded against Galway United
W 2.01 created, 0.86 conceded against Drogheda United

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Dundalk FC: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged3 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Dundalk FC against Bohemian FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Dundalk FC to win	3.40	+10.0%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.53	+9.4%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.57	+6.1%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.17	+3.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Dundalk FC	32.3%	27.1%	+5.2 pp	3.09
Draw	26.4%	25.6%	+0.8 pp	3.79
Bohemian FC	41.3%	47.3%	−6.0 pp	2.42

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	71.4%	60.8%	+10.6 pp	1.40
Both teams not to score	28.6%	39.2%	−10.6 pp	3.49
Over 1.5 goals	88.4%	81.1%	+7.3 pp	1.13
Under 1.5 goals	11.6%	18.9%	−7.3 pp	8.60
Over 2.5 goals	67.5%	59.9%	+7.6 pp	1.48
Under 2.5 goals	32.5%	40.1%	−7.6 pp	3.08

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Dundalk FC sample: 20 matches
Bohemian FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.