xgEdge

Sunday, 25/01/2026 at 17:30

Full time
Match report · Premier League

Arsenal 2:3 Manchester United

Arsenal Home 1.20 xG · 16 shots
Manchester United Away 0.73 xG · 10 shots
23 The result went against the chances

Goals

  1. 29' Lisandro Martínez (o.g.) Arsenal · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
  2. 37' Bryan Mbeumo Manchester United · 0.18 xG chance 1–1
  3. 50' Patrick Dorgu Manchester United · 0.05 xG chance 1–2
  4. 84' Mikel Merino Arsenal · 0.40 xG chance 2–2
  5. 87' Matheus Cunha Manchester United · 0.03 xG chance 2–3

The shots behind it

Arsenal Manchester United
Shots
16
10
On target
5
3
Inside the box
9
3
xG per shot
0.08
0.07
Open play xG
0.48
0.74
Set-piece xG
0.81
0.00
Penalties
—
—

Arsenal's shots add up to 1.29 xG and Manchester United's to 0.74; the published figures are 1.20 and 0.73.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

Arsenal · Mikel Merino · 84' · Goal · 3 m · 0.40 xG Manchester United · Bruno Fernandes · 90' · No goal · 48 m · 0.25 xG Arsenal · Martín Zubimendi · 18' · No goal · 5 m · 0.24 xG Manchester United · Bryan Mbeumo · 37' · Goal · 13 m · 0.18 xG Arsenal · Lisandro Martínez · 29' · Goal · 3 m · 0.10 xG Arsenal · Martin Ødegaard · 29' · No goal · 9 m · 0.09 xG Manchester United · Bruno Fernandes · 34' · No goal · 11 m · 0.09 xG Arsenal · Declan Rice · 15' · No goal · 9 m · 0.08 xG Arsenal · Leandro Trossard · 10' · No goal · 15 m · 0.07 xG Arsenal · Mikel Merino · 70' · No goal · 10 m · 0.06 xG Arsenal · Mikel Merino · 71' · No goal · 18 m · 0.06 xG Arsenal · Martín Zubimendi · 39' · No goal · 15 m · 0.05 xG Manchester United · Patrick Dorgu · 50' · Goal · 18 m · 0.05 xG Manchester United · Bruno Fernandes · 31' · No goal · 19 m · 0.04 xG Manchester United · Patrick Dorgu · 53' · No goal · 12 m · 0.04 xG Manchester United · Bryan Mbeumo · 45' · No goal · 20 m · 0.03 xG Arsenal · Viktor Gyökeres · 81' · No goal · 9 m · 0.03 xG Arsenal · Bukayo Saka · 83' · No goal · 12 m · 0.03 xG Manchester United · Matheus Cunha · 87' · Goal · 28 m · 0.03 xG Arsenal · Declan Rice · 7' · No goal · 17 m · 0.02 xG Manchester United · Kobbie Mainoo · 23' · No goal · 24 m · 0.02 xG Arsenal · Bukayo Saka · 55' · No goal · 21 m · 0.02 xG Arsenal · Declan Rice · 65' · No goal · 21 m · 0.02 xG Arsenal · Bukayo Saka · 12' · No goal · 21 m · 0.01 xG Manchester United · Lisandro Martínez · 23' · No goal · 29 m · 0.01 xG Arsenal · Gabriel Jesus · 57' · No goal · 21 m · 0.01 xG

All shots

26 shots · 2.03 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

  • Arsenal
  • Manchester United
  • Filled = goal
  • Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match
Arsenal

1.96 xG created 0.97 xGA

  • W 1.81 created, 0.20 conceded against Everton
  • W 3.08 created, 0.85 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
  • W 3.04 created, 2.67 conceded against Aston Villa
  • W 1.13 created, 1.43 conceded against Bournemouth
  • D 0.57 created, 0.31 conceded against Liverpool
  • D 2.10 created, 0.34 conceded against Nottingham Forest
Manchester United

1.62 xG created 0.91 xGA

  • L 1.33 created, 1.54 conceded against Aston Villa
  • W 1.17 created, 1.18 conceded against Newcastle United
  • D 0.84 created, 1.16 conceded against Wolverhampton
  • D 1.58 created, 0.90 conceded against Leeds United
  • D 2.55 created, 0.24 conceded against Burnley
  • W 2.27 created, 0.45 conceded against Manchester City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Arsenal: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.