Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Aston Villa – Chelsea
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Aston Villa
- 35%
- Draw
- 30%
- Chelsea
- 35%
| Aston Villa | Draw | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.85 | 3.35 | 2.85 |
- Total goals
- 2.79
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model can't separate them
35% Aston Villa to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 11th
- Aston Villa attack v Chelsea defence
- Defence
- 18th vs 10th
- Aston Villa defence v Chelsea attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.71 vs -0.42
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.40 – 1.39
- Aston Villa v Chelsea
Squad news
Aston Villa
13 listed-
Ollie Watkins 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Ian Maatsen 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Pau Torres 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Brian Madjo 0% chance
Forward · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Leon Bailey 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Olympiakos permanently
-
Marco Bizot 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Back injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Kosta Nedeljkovic 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Rangers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Luka Lynch 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Oxford United on loan until January
-
Amadou Onana 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Samuel Iling-Junior 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Bolton Wanderers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Leon Goretzka 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Lucas Digne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Paris Saint-Germain permanently
-
Alysson 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Chelsea
14 listed-
Robert Lynch Sánchez 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Como on loan for the rest of the season
-
Marc Guiu Paz 0% chance
Forward · Has joined RB Leipzig permanently
-
Dário Essugo 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined RC Strasbourg on loan for the rest of the season
-
Trevoh Chalobah 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Como permanently
-
Emmanuel Emegha 0% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Benoît Badiashile Mukinayi 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Napoli on loan for the rest of the season
-
Filip Jörgensen 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined RC Strasbourg on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mamadou Sarr 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Real Sociedad on loan for the rest of the season
-
Moisés Caicedo 50% chance
Midfielder · Calf injury - 50% chance of playing
-
Marco Palestra 50% chance
Defender · Thigh injury - 50% chance of playing
-
João Pedro 75% chance
Forward · Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Cole Palmer 75% chance
Midfielder · Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Reece James 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Aston Villa | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.91 · 20th | (better) 1.47 · 11th |
| xGA / match | 1.84 · 19th | (better) 1.78 · 17th |
| xGD / match | -0.94 · 20th | (better) -0.31 · 14th |
| xPts / match | 0.90 · 18th | (better) 1.16 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.71 | (better) -0.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Aston Villa clean sheet
- 22%
- Aston Villa 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.9%
- 2:1
- 9.7%
- 1:2
- 9.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aston Villa sample
- 20 matches
- Chelsea sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Aston Villa
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Chelsea
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.