Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 13:30
Full timeTottenham Hotspur 2:3 Aston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. Aston Villa won 3–2. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
Goals
- 45' Johan Manzambi Aston Villa · 0.30 xG chance 0–1
- 67' Nicolas Jackson Aston Villa · 0.06 xG chance 0–2
- 79' Emiliano Buendía Aston Villa · 0.02 xG chance 0–3
- 86' Conor Gallagher Tottenham Hotspur · 0.16 xG chance 1–3
- 90' Jan Paul van Hecke Tottenham Hotspur · 0.20 xG chance 2–3
The model against the result
- Tottenham Hotspur
- 44%
- Draw
- 30%
- Aston Villa
- 25% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 20
- 15
- On target
- 7
- 6
- Inside the box
- 12
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.08
- Open play xG
- 0.67
- 1.17
- Set-piece xG
- 0.58
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.24 for Tottenham Hotspur and 1.17 for Aston Villa.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
35 shots · 2.42 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Tottenham Hotspur
- Aston Villa
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.98 xG created 1.28 xGA
1.17 xG created 1.74 xGA
- W 1.85 created, 1.43 conceded against Liverpool
- W 1.77 created, 1.34 conceded against Manchester City
- L 0.29 created, 3.77 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
- L 0.33 created, 1.04 conceded against Arsenal
- D 1.93 created, 0.57 conceded against Hull City
- L 0.82 created, 2.28 conceded against Nottingham Forest
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.60 | +9.4% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +7.0% | Lost |
| Tottenham Hotspur at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +0.7% | Lost |
| Tottenham Hotspur not to score | 5.00 | +0.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur | 44.4% | 49.5% | −5.1 pp | 2.25 |
| Draw | 30.4% | 26.3% | +4.1 pp | 3.29 |
| Aston Villa | 25.3% | 24.2% | +1.0 pp | 3.96 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur to score | 80.0% | 81.1% | −1.1 pp | 1.25 |
| Tottenham Hotspur not to score | 20.0% | 18.9% | +1.1 pp | 5.00 |
| Aston Villa to score | 69.8% | 68.7% | +1.1 pp | 1.43 |
| Aston Villa not to score | 30.2% | 31.3% | −1.1 pp | 3.31 |
| Both teams to score | 57.6% | 57.7% | −0.0 pp | 1.73 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.4% | 42.3% | +0.0 pp | 2.36 |
| Tottenham Hotspur 2+ goals | 45.1% | 50.0% | −4.9 pp | 2.22 |
| Tottenham Hotspur at most 1 goal | 54.9% | 50.0% | +4.9 pp | 1.82 |
| Aston Villa 2+ goals | 30.4% | 33.7% | −3.4 pp | 3.29 |
| Aston Villa at most 1 goal | 69.6% | 66.3% | +3.4 pp | 1.44 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | 78.0% | −0.7 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.7% | 22.0% | +0.7 pp | 4.41 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 54.9% | −5.8 pp | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 45.1% | +5.8 pp | 1.96 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Tottenham Hotspur sample
- 20 matches
- Aston Villa sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.