Brighton & Hove Albion 2:1 Nottingham Forest: xG & match report · Premier League

Sunday, 01/03/2026 at 15:00

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Brighton & Hove Albion Home 1.31 xG · 14 shots

Nottingham Forest Away 0.93 xG · 13 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

6' Diego Gómez Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.03 xG chance 1–0
13' Morgan Gibbs-White Nottingham Forest · 0.03 xG chance 1–1
15' Danny Welbeck Brighton & Hove Albion · 0.25 xG chance 2–1

The shots behind it

Brighton & Hove Albion Nottingham Forest

Shots: 14; 13
On target: 7; 4
Inside the box: 7; 7
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.07
Open play xG: 1.27; 0.69
Set-piece xG: 0.04; 0.23
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.93 for Nottingham Forest.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 2.23 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Brighton & Hove Albion
Nottingham Forest
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Brighton & Hove Albion

1.05 xG created 1.21 xGA

D 1.05 created, 1.33 conceded against Bournemouth
L 1.50 created, 1.13 conceded against Fulham
D 1.29 created, 1.20 conceded against Everton
L 0.85 created, 1.16 conceded against Crystal Palace
L 0.50 created, 0.72 conceded against Aston Villa
W 1.11 created, 1.74 conceded against Brentford

Nottingham Forest

1.09 xG created 1.74 xGA

D 0.34 created, 2.10 conceded against Arsenal
W 0.76 created, 1.76 conceded against Brentford
D 0.49 created, 1.92 conceded against Crystal Palace
L 1.13 created, 2.50 conceded against Leeds United
D 2.55 created, 0.42 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 1.26 created, 1.76 conceded against Liverpool

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Brighton & Hove Albion: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Nottingham Forest 0:2 Brighton & Hove Albion 30/11/2025 xG 0.89 – 2.00

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.