Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeEverton 1:0 Ipswich Town
Everton were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Everton's attack: 2.24 xG against 1.59 projected (+0.65).
Goals
- 11' Thierno Barry Everton · 0.17 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- Everton
- 43% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Ipswich Town
- 28%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Everton produced 0.65 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 21
- 13
- On target
- 2
- 4
- Inside the box
- 13
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 2.24
- 1.20
- Set-piece xG
- 0.09
- 0.06
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.31 for Everton and 1.30 for Ipswich Town.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
34 shots · 3.59 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Everton
- Ipswich Town
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.09 xG created 1.24 xGA
- L 1.04 created, 0.76 conceded against Sunderland
- L 0.41 created, 1.15 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
- W 1.12 created, 1.96 conceded against Crystal Palace
- D 1.84 created, 2.16 conceded against Bournemouth
- D 1.01 created, 0.69 conceded against Manchester United
- D 1.11 created, 0.69 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
1.56 xG created 1.63 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged1 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town to win | 4.20 | +17.9% | Lost |
| Ipswich Town 2+ goals | 3.00 | +11.5% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.75 | +8.0% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +4.9% | Lost |
| Ipswich Town to score | 1.40 | +4.6% | Lost |
| Everton at most 1 goal | 2.00 | +2.5% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | +0.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 43.1% | 52.4% | −9.3 pp | 2.32 |
| Draw | 28.8% | 25.1% | +3.6 pp | 3.47 |
| Ipswich Town | 28.1% | 22.5% | +5.6 pp | 3.56 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton to score | 82.1% | 82.8% | −0.7 pp | 1.22 |
| Everton not to score | 17.9% | 17.2% | +0.7 pp | 5.58 |
| Ipswich Town to score | 74.7% | 66.3% | +8.5 pp | 1.34 |
| Ipswich Town not to score | 25.3% | 33.7% | −8.5 pp | 3.96 |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | 55.7% | +7.2 pp | 1.59 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.0% | 44.3% | −7.2 pp | 2.70 |
| Everton 2+ goals | 48.7% | 53.7% | −4.9 pp | 2.05 |
| Everton at most 1 goal | 51.3% | 46.3% | +4.9 pp | 1.95 |
| Ipswich Town 2+ goals | 37.2% | 31.3% | +5.9 pp | 2.69 |
| Ipswich Town at most 1 goal | 62.8% | 68.7% | −5.9 pp | 1.59 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | 78.0% | +3.9 pp | 1.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.1% | 22.0% | −3.9 pp | 5.54 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 54.9% | +1.3 pp | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 45.1% | −1.3 pp | 2.28 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Everton sample
- 20 matches
- Ipswich Town sample
- 4 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 7 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Ipswich Town has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.