Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeCrystal Palace 2:3 Ipswich Town
Crystal Palace were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. Ipswich Town won 3–2. The biggest difference was Crystal Palace's attack: 0.62 xG against 1.69 projected (−1.07). Ipswich Town produced 1.67 xG against 1.24 projected (+0.43).
Goals
- 14' Anan Khalaili Crystal Palace · 0.04 xG chance 1–0
- 23' Emersonn Ipswich Town · 0.35 xG chance 1–1
- 45' Leif Davis Ipswich Town · 0.47 xG chance 1–2
- 75' Jørgen Strand Larsen Crystal Palace · 0.04 xG chance 2–2
- 90' Zian Flemming Ipswich Town · 0.42 xG chance 2–3
The model against the result
- Crystal Palace
- 47%
- Draw
- 28%
- Ipswich Town
- 25% What happened
Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Crystal Palace produced 1.07 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 11
- 12
- On target
- 4
- 6
- Inside the box
- 9
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.14
- Open play xG
- 0.61
- 1.60
- Set-piece xG
- 0.00
- 0.07
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.62 for Crystal Palace.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 2.28 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Crystal Palace
- Ipswich Town
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.34 xG created 2.06 xGA
1.52 xG created 1.97 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged4 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | +8.2% | Won |
| Ipswich Town 2+ goals | 3.00 | +7.1% | Won |
| Draw | 3.80 | +6.8% | Lost |
| Ipswich Town to score | 1.40 | +3.4% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | +1.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 46.6% | 49.5% | −2.9 pp | 2.15 |
| Draw | 28.1% | 24.9% | +3.2 pp | 3.56 |
| Ipswich Town | 25.3% | 25.6% | −0.3 pp | 3.96 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace to score | 84.0% | 81.1% | +2.9 pp | 1.19 |
| Crystal Palace not to score | 16.0% | 18.9% | −2.9 pp | 6.25 |
| Ipswich Town to score | 73.9% | 66.3% | +7.6 pp | 1.35 |
| Ipswich Town not to score | 26.1% | 33.7% | −7.6 pp | 3.83 |
| Both teams to score | 63.7% | 54.7% | +9.0 pp | 1.57 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.3% | 45.3% | −9.0 pp | 2.75 |
| Crystal Palace 2+ goals | 52.1% | 50.0% | +2.1 pp | 1.92 |
| Crystal Palace at most 1 goal | 47.9% | 50.0% | −2.1 pp | 2.09 |
| Ipswich Town 2+ goals | 35.7% | 31.3% | +4.5 pp | 2.80 |
| Ipswich Town at most 1 goal | 64.3% | 68.7% | −4.5 pp | 1.56 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.0% | 78.0% | +5.0 pp | 1.21 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.0% | 22.0% | −5.0 pp | 5.87 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% | 54.9% | +2.9 pp | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.2% | 45.1% | −2.9 pp | 2.37 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Crystal Palace sample
- 20 matches
- Ipswich Town sample
- 3 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Warnings
- Ipswich Town has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.