Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Manchester City – Arsenal
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Manchester City
- 36%
- Draw
- 31%
- Arsenal
- 33%
| Manchester City | Draw | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.81 | 3.20 | 3.01 |
- Total goals
- 2.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model can't separate them
36% Manchester City to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 1st
- Manchester City attack v Arsenal defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 7th
- Manchester City defence v Arsenal attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.47 vs +1.00
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.31 – 1.26
- Manchester City v Arsenal
Squad news
Manchester City
9 listed-
Phil Foden 0% chance
Midfielder · Suspended until 17 Oct
-
Divine Mukasa 0% chance
Midfielder · has joined West Ham on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Max Alleyne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Burnley on loan for the rest of the season
-
Tijjani Reijnders 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Al Qadsiah permanently
-
Claudio Echeverri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Benfica on loan for the rest of the season
-
Kalvin Phillips 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Sheffield United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Jeremy Monga 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Swansea City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Rodri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Barcelona permanently
-
Antoine Semenyo 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
Arsenal
9 listed-
William Saliba 0% chance
Defender · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Gabriel Martinelli 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Gabriel Jesus 0% chance
Forward · Has joined FC Barcelona permanently
-
Fábio Vieira 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Hamburger SV permanently
-
Reiss Nelson 0% chance
Midfielder · has departed the club as a free agent.
-
Ethan Nwaneri 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Borussia Dortmund on loan for the rest of the season
-
Declan Rice 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Kai Havertz 75% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Benjamin White 75% chance
Defender · Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Manchester City | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.10 · 2nd | 1.70 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 1.45 · 9th | (better) 0.81 · 1st |
| xGD / match | +0.65 · 3rd | (better) +0.89 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.87 · 2nd | (better) 2.07 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.47 | (better) +1.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Manchester City clean sheet
- 25%
- Manchester City 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.0%
- 2:1
- 9.6%
- 1:2
- 9.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Manchester City sample
- 20 matches
- Arsenal sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Manchester City
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Arsenal
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.