Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Tottenham Hotspur – Leeds United
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Tottenham Hotspur
- 39%
- Draw
- 31%
- Leeds United
- 30%
| Tottenham Hotspur | Draw | Leeds United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.59 | 3.18 | 3.33 |
- Total goals
- 2.52
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Tottenham Hotspur
39% Tottenham Hotspur to win
- Attack
- 20th vs 10th
- Tottenham Hotspur attack v Leeds United defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 14th
- Tottenham Hotspur defence v Leeds United attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.34 vs +0.07
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.34 – 1.17
- Tottenham Hotspur v Leeds United
Squad news
Tottenham Hotspur
15 listed-
Dane Scarlett 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Leyton Orient permanently
-
Richarlison 0% chance
Forward · not included in squad.
-
Djed Spence 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Internazionale permanently
-
Souza 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Porto on loan for the rest of the season
-
Guglielmo Vicario 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Cristian Romero 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Atletico Madrid permanently
-
Pape Matar Sarr 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mikey Moore 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined FC Köln on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mykhailo Mudryk 0% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Ashley Phillips 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Middlesbrough permanently
-
Xavi Simons 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Wilson Odobert 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Dejan Kulusevski 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Pedro Porro Sauceda 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Jan Paul van Hecke 75% chance
Defender · Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
Leeds United
8 listed-
Harry Wilson 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Joe Rodon 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
-
Lucas Perri 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Torino on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joël Piroe 0% chance
Forward · Has joined West Ham United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mateo Joseph Fernández-Regatillo 0% chance
Forward · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Jack Harrison 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined New England Revolution permanently
-
Sebastiaan Bornauw 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Hamburg SV on loan for the rest of the season
-
Wilfried Gnonto 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined ACF Fiorentina on loan for the rest of the season
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Tottenham Hotspur | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.00 · 18th | (better) 1.56 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 1.56 · 11th | (better) 1.27 · 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.56 · 16th | (better) +0.29 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 1.17 · 13th | (better) 1.55 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.34 | (better) +0.07 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet
- 28%
- Tottenham Hotspur 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.1%
- 2:1
- 10.0%
- 1:2
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Tottenham Hotspur sample
- 20 matches
- Leeds United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Tottenham Hotspur
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Leeds United
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.