Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 13:30
34d 11h to kick-offLeeds United – Tottenham Hotspur
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Leeds United
- 42%
- Draw
- 31%
- Tottenham Hotspur
- 27%
| Leeds United | Draw | Tottenham Hotspur | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.37 | 3.22 | 3.74 |
- Total goals
- 2.53
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Leeds United
42% Leeds United to win
- Attack
- 14th vs 8th
- Leeds United attack v Tottenham Hotspur defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 20th
- Leeds United defence v Tottenham Hotspur attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.07 vs -0.34
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.42 – 1.11
- Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur
Squad news
Leeds United
8 listed-
Harry Wilson 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Joe Rodon 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
-
Lucas Perri 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Torino on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joël Piroe 0% chance
Forward · Has joined West Ham United on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mateo Joseph Fernández-Regatillo 0% chance
Forward · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Jack Harrison 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined New England Revolution permanently
-
Sebastiaan Bornauw 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Hamburg SV on loan for the rest of the season
-
Wilfried Gnonto 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined ACF Fiorentina on loan for the rest of the season
Tottenham Hotspur
15 listed-
Dane Scarlett 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Leyton Orient permanently
-
Richarlison 0% chance
Forward · not included in squad.
-
Djed Spence 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Internazionale permanently
-
Souza 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Porto on loan for the rest of the season
-
Guglielmo Vicario 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Cristian Romero 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Atletico Madrid permanently
-
Pape Matar Sarr 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mikey Moore 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined FC Köln on loan for the rest of the season
-
Mykhailo Mudryk 0% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Ashley Phillips 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Middlesbrough permanently
-
Xavi Simons 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Wilson Odobert 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Dejan Kulusevski 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Pedro Porro Sauceda 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Jan Paul van Hecke 75% chance
Defender · Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Leeds United | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.56 · 9th | 1.00 · 18th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.27 · 5th | 1.56 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.29 · 8th | -0.56 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.55 · 8th | 1.17 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.07 | -0.34 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Leeds United clean sheet
- 30%
- Leeds United 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.0%
- 2:1
- 10.6%
- 1:0
- 8.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Leeds United sample
- 20 matches
- Tottenham Hotspur sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Leeds United
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Tottenham Hotspur
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.