Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 17:00
13d 13h to kick-offFC Koper – Brinje Grosuplje
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Koper
- 47%
- Draw
- 29%
- Brinje Grosuplje
- 23%
| FC Koper | Draw | Brinje Grosuplje | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.11 | 3.43 | 4.27 |
- Total goals
- 2.71
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Koper
47% FC Koper to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 6th
- FC Koper attack v Brinje Grosuplje defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 10th
- FC Koper defence v Brinje Grosuplje attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.05 vs -0.71
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.60 – 1.10
- FC Koper v Brinje Grosuplje
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Koper | Brinje Grosuplje |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.53 · 4th | 1.25 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.28 · 3rd | 1.77 · 8th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.25 · 4th | -0.52 · 9th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.55 · 4th | 1.06 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.05 | -0.71 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- FC Koper clean sheet
- 30%
- FC Koper 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.8%
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 2:0
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Koper sample
- 20 matches
- Brinje Grosuplje sample
- 10 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Koper
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Brinje Grosuplje
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.