Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 17:45
Full timeLokomotiv Moscow 0:4 FC Spartak Moscow
FC Spartak Moscow were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. They won 4–0.
The model against the result
- Lokomotiv Moscow
- 28%
- Draw
- 25%
- FC Spartak Moscow
- 47% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.34 xG created 2.01 xGA
- W 0.89 created, 0.56 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
- L 0.73 created, 2.87 conceded against Zenit St. Petersburg
- D 0.81 created, 2.25 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
- W 2.25 created, 1.81 conceded against Fakel Voronezh
- D 2.20 created, 2.03 conceded against FK Krasnodar
- L 1.13 created, 2.53 conceded against FC Rostov
2.00 xG created 1.51 xGA
- D 2.70 created, 0.51 conceded against Orenburg
- L 0.62 created, 1.96 conceded against Dynamo Moscow
- W 3.25 created, 0.71 conceded against FC Rostov
- W 2.49 created, 0.07 conceded against Fakel Voronezh
- D 0.61 created, 3.43 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
- L 2.30 created, 2.37 conceded against CSKA Moscow
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 qualified edges flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Moscow to win | 5.08 | +44.0% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.66 | +18.5% | Won |
| Draw | 4.32 | +8.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Moscow | 28.3% | 18.9% | +9.4 pp | 3.53 |
| Draw | 25.1% | 22.3% | +2.8 pp | 3.99 |
| FC Spartak Moscow | 46.6% | 58.8% | −12.2 pp | 2.15 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.5% | 57.8% | +13.7 pp | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.5% | 42.2% | −13.7 pp | 3.51 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lokomotiv Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- FC Spartak Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 23 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.