Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 16:30
21d 14h to kick-offZenit St. Petersburg – Dinamo Makhachkala
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Zenit St. Petersburg
- 54%
- Draw
- 30%
- Dinamo Makhachkala
- 16%
| Zenit St. Petersburg | Draw | Dinamo Makhachkala | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.85 | 3.32 | 6.30 |
- Total goals
- 2.25
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score
- 47%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Zenit St. Petersburg
54% Zenit St. Petersburg to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 5th
- Zenit St. Petersburg attack v Dinamo Makhachkala defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 15th
- Zenit St. Petersburg defence v Dinamo Makhachkala attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.21 vs +0.15
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.49 – 0.75
- Zenit St. Petersburg v Dinamo Makhachkala
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Zenit St. Petersburg | Dinamo Makhachkala |
|---|---|---|
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.21 | +0.15 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 41% of the model's distribution.
- Zenit St. Petersburg clean sheet
- 44%
- Zenit St. Petersburg 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score: no
- 53%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.4%
- 1:0
- 13.6%
- 2:0
- 12.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Zenit St. Petersburg sample
- 20 matches
- Dinamo Makhachkala sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Zenit St. Petersburg
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · Dinamo Makhachkala
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.