Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 21:00
13d 20h to kick-offDundee FC – Rangers
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Dundee FC
- 12%
- Draw
- 22%
- Rangers
- 66%
| Dundee FC | Draw | Rangers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 8.56 | 4.51 | 1.51 |
- Total goals
- 3.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Rangers
66% Rangers to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 11th
- Rangers attack v Dundee FC defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 11th
- Rangers defence v Dundee FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.23 vs +0.02
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.89 – 2.14
- Dundee FC v Rangers
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Dundee FC | Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.28 · 9th | (better) 2.03 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.56 · 7th | (better) 1.00 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.28 · 9th | (better) +1.03 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.24 · 8th | (better) 2.01 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.02 | (better) +1.23 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Rangers clean sheet
- 38%
- Rangers 2+ goals
- 65%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:2
- 11.6%
- 1:1
- 11.2%
- 0:2
- 11.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dundee FC sample
- 20 matches
- Rangers sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Dundee FC
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Rangers
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.