Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00
27d 14h to kick-offDundee United – Heart of Midlothian
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Dundee United
- 30%
- Draw
- 31%
- Heart of Midlothian
- 39%
| Dundee United | Draw | Heart of Midlothian | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.30 | 3.22 | 2.59 |
- Total goals
- 2.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Heart of Midlothian
39% Heart of Midlothian to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 10th
- Heart of Midlothian attack v Dundee United defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 3rd
- Heart of Midlothian defence v Dundee United attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.63 vs +0.10
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.20 – 1.37
- Dundee United v Heart of Midlothian
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Dundee United | Heart of Midlothian |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.56 · 5th | (better) 1.62 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.44 · 4th | (better) 1.26 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | +0.11 · 5th | (better) +0.35 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.43 · 5th | (better) 1.68 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.10 | (better) +0.63 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Heart of Midlothian clean sheet
- 27%
- Heart of Midlothian 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 1:2
- 10.1%
- 2:1
- 8.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dundee United sample
- 20 matches
- Heart of Midlothian sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Dundee United
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Heart of Midlothian
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.