xgEdge

Expected goals

Hibernian expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Scottish Premiership · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Hibernian's attacking and defensive expected goals in Scottish Premiership 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Hibernian xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.75 xG per match
#3/12
Attack (xG per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Celtic 2.77
#2 Rangers 2.03
#3 Hibernian 1.75
#4 Heart of Midlothian 1.62
#5 Dundee United 1.56
#6 St. Mirren 1.44
#7 Motherwell 1.36
#8 St. Johnstone 1.30
#9 Dundee FC 1.28
#10 Aberdeen 1.00
#11 Falkirk FC 0.90
#12 Kilmarnock 0.89
League avg
1.49
Total
12.24 7 matches
Defence
1.55 xGA per match
#6/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Celtic 0.89
#2 Rangers 1.00
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.26
#4 Dundee United 1.44
#5 St. Johnstone 1.52
#6 Hibernian 1.55
#7 Dundee FC 1.56
#8 St. Mirren 1.57
#9 Aberdeen 1.57
#10 Motherwell 1.58
#11 Falkirk FC 1.66
#12 Kilmarnock 2.28
League avg
1.49
Total
10.86 7 matches
xG difference
+0.20 xGD per match
#4/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Celtic +1.88
#2 Rangers +1.03
#3 Heart of Midlothian +0.35
#4 Hibernian +0.20
#5 Dundee United +0.11
#6 St. Mirren -0.12
#7 Motherwell -0.22
#8 St. Johnstone -0.23
#9 Dundee FC -0.28
#10 Aberdeen -0.57
#11 Falkirk FC -0.76
#12 Kilmarnock -1.39
League avg
0.00
Total
+1.38 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.54 xPts per match
#4/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Celtic 2.35
#2 Rangers 2.01
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.68
#4 Hibernian 1.54
#5 Dundee United 1.43
#6 Motherwell 1.37
#7 St. Mirren 1.33
#8 Dundee FC 1.24
#9 St. Johnstone 1.20
#10 Aberdeen 0.96
#11 Falkirk FC 0.86
#12 Kilmarnock 0.71
League avg
1.39
Total
10.80 vs 7 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Hibernian's underlying numbers are among the best in Scottish Premiership. They rank #4 for xG difference at +0.20 per match, built on elite shot volume rather than low chance quality. Their 8 goals are 4.24 below 12.24 xG, while 7 points are 3.80 below 10.80 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 2.35 xG from penalties
8 12.24 -4.24 scored 4.24 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
11 10.86 +0.14 conceded 0.14 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
7 10.80 -3.80 3.80 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Hibernian are 4.24 goals below their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
8
xG
12.24
Gap
-4.24
Sun 02/08 Sun 09/08 Sun 30/08 Thu 03/09 Sun 06/09 Tue 15/09 Sat 19/09 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.92 -0.66 -1.08 -1.78 -2.50 -3.81 -4.24 -0.92 +0.26 -0.42 -0.70 -0.72 -1.31 -0.43 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Hibernian: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 02/08 Motherwell 1 1.92 -0.92 -0.92
Sun 09/08 Rangers 2 1.74 +0.26 -0.66
Sun 30/08 Dundee FC 2 2.42 -0.42 -1.08
Thu 03/09 Heart of Midlothian 1 1.70 -0.70 -1.78
Sun 06/09 St. Johnstone 1 1.72 -0.72 -2.50
Tue 15/09 Kilmarnock 0 1.31 -1.31 -3.81
Sat 19/09 Aberdeen 1 1.43 -0.43 -4.24

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Hibernian xG trend

Current form +0.10 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 3 of 7 matches. The worst was against Rangers on Sun 09/08 (-1.19).

npxG · last 6
1.46
npxGA · last 6
1.36
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 -0.08 Sun 02/08 -1.19 Sun 09/08 +1.64 Sun 30/08 +0.88 Thu 03/09 +0.02 Sun 06/09 -0.64 Tue 15/09 -0.13 Sat 19/09 +0.07 season avg
Hibernian: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 02/08 Motherwell 1.14 1.22 -0.08 -0.08
Sun 09/08 Rangers 0.96 2.15 -1.19 -0.64
Sun 30/08 Dundee FC 2.42 0.78 +1.64 +0.12
Thu 03/09 Heart of Midlothian 1.70 0.82 +0.88 +0.31
Sun 06/09 St. Johnstone 1.72 1.70 +0.02 +0.25
Tue 15/09 Kilmarnock 1.31 1.95 -0.64 +0.10
Sat 19/09 Aberdeen 0.64 0.77 -0.13 +0.07

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.41 npxG and 1.34 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 10 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
−0.07 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 11 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
−0.27 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.07 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 10 hardest of 12

  1. Aberdeen Home −0.33
  2. Kilmarnock Home −0.52
  3. St. Johnstone Away −0.23
  4. Heart of Midlothian Home +0.18
  5. Dundee FC Away −0.48
  6. Rangers Away +0.85
  7. Motherwell Home +0.05

Last 5

−0.27 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 11 hardest of 12

  1. Aberdeen Home −0.33
  2. Kilmarnock Home −0.52
  3. St. Johnstone Away −0.23
  4. Heart of Midlothian Home +0.18
  5. Dundee FC Away −0.48

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Hibernian shots and chance quality

High volume, low quality. Hibernian take 16.9 shots a match (league 14.2) at 0.08 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #3 in Scottish Premiership for volume and #11 for quality. 70% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 27% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
16.9 shots per match
#3/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Celtic 20.0
=1 Rangers 20.0
#3 Hibernian 16.9
#4 Heart of Midlothian 16.0
#5 Dundee United 15.9
#6 Motherwell 14.6
#7 St. Mirren 14.3
#8 Dundee FC 11.3
#9 Falkirk FC 10.7
#10 St. Johnstone 10.6
=11 Aberdeen 9.9
=11 Kilmarnock 9.9
League avg
14.2
Total
118 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.08 npxG per shot
#11/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Celtic 0.14
#2 St. Johnstone 0.12
#3 Dundee FC 0.10
#4 Kilmarnock 0.09
#5 St. Mirren 0.09
#6 Rangers 0.09
#7 Dundee United 0.09
#8 Heart of Midlothian 0.09
#9 Falkirk FC 0.09
#10 Aberdeen 0.09
#11 Hibernian 0.08
#12 Motherwell 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
9.89 npxG from 118 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
12.4 shots per match
#4/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Rangers 9.1
#2 Heart of Midlothian 9.7
#3 Celtic 11.1
#4 Hibernian 12.4
#5 St. Johnstone 12.6
#6 St. Mirren 14.9
#7 Falkirk FC 15.0
#8 Motherwell 15.1
#9 Dundee United 15.7
#10 Aberdeen 16.7
#11 Kilmarnock 18.4
#12 Dundee FC 19.0
League avg
14.2
Total
87 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#8/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Celtic 0.07
#2 Dundee FC 0.08
#3 Aberdeen 0.08
#4 Motherwell 0.08
#5 Dundee United 0.08
#6 Rangers 0.10
#7 St. Mirren 0.10
#8 Hibernian 0.11
#9 Falkirk FC 0.11
#10 Heart of Midlothian 0.11
#11 Kilmarnock 0.12
#12 St. Johnstone 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
9.39 npxGA from 87 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

70% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 83 of 118 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

60% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 52 of 87 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

73% open play · 27% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 2.7 of 9.9 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

79% open play · 21% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 2.0 of 9.3 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Hibernian home and away xG

Hibernian per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 1.59 1.96
xGA / match 1.39 1.77
xGD / match +0.21 +0.19
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.56 1.52

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Hibernian match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
1.75
xGA / match
1.55
xGD / match
+0.20
Points
7 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 Aberdeen H xG 1.43 P xGA 0.77 xGD +0.66
  2. Tue 15/09 Kilmarnock H xG 1.31 xGA 1.95 xGD -0.64
  3. Sun 06/09 St. Johnstone A Weakest underlying xG 1.72 xGA 2.49 P xGD -0.77
  4. Thu 03/09 Heart of Midlothian H xG 1.70 xGA 0.82 xGD +0.88
  5. Sun 30/08 Dundee FC A Best underlying xG 2.42 xGA 0.78 xGD +1.64
  6. Sun 09/08 Rangers A xG 1.74 P xGA 2.05 xGD -0.31
  7. Sun 02/08 Motherwell H xG 1.92 P xGA 2.00 P xGD -0.08

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Hibernian in Scottish Premiership

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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