St. Johnstone 1:1 Falkirk FC: xG & match report · Scottish Premiership

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 16:00

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Match report · Scottish Premiership

St. Johnstone Home 0.68 xG · 8 shots

Falkirk FC Away 0.90 xG · 13 shots

11 The chances were evenly matched

St. Johnstone were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was St. Johnstone's attack: 0.68 xG against 1.37 projected (−0.69).

Goals

60' Ethan Ross Falkirk FC · 0.18 xG chance 0–1
90' Enes Alić St. Johnstone · 0.03 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

St. Johnstone: 40%
Draw: 31% What happened
Falkirk FC: 29%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

St. Johnstone 1.37 0.68 -0.69

Falkirk FC 1.15 0.90 -0.25

St. Johnstone produced 0.69 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

St. Johnstone Falkirk FC

Shots: 8; 13
On target: 5; 4
Inside the box: 4; 9
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.60; 0.77
Set-piece xG: 0.08; 0.21
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.02 for Falkirk FC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 1.66 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

St. Johnstone
Falkirk FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

St. Johnstone

1.40 xG created 1.63 xGA

W 1.76 created, 0.79 conceded against Kilmarnock
L 1.13 created, 1.36 conceded against St. Mirren
L 1.16 created, 1.71 conceded against Heart of Midlothian
D 1.08 created, 1.97 conceded against Dundee FC
W 2.49 created, 1.72 conceded against Hibernian
L 0.77 created, 2.22 conceded against Celtic

Falkirk FC

0.90 xG created 1.83 xGA

L 0.71 created, 1.64 conceded against St. Mirren
D 0.44 created, 0.89 conceded against Motherwell
L 0.53 created, 2.87 conceded against Celtic
L 0.85 created, 1.57 conceded against Rangers
D 0.85 created, 2.27 conceded against Dundee United
W 2.05 created, 1.72 conceded against Heart of Midlothian

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on St. Johnstone against Falkirk FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Falkirk FC to win	3.60	+3.7%	Lost
St. Johnstone at most 1 goal	1.73	+2.4%	Won
Draw	3.25	+1.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
St. Johnstone	39.9%	44.9%	−5.0 pp	2.51
Draw	31.3%	29.0%	+2.3 pp	3.19
Falkirk FC	28.8%	26.2%	+2.6 pp	3.47

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
St. Johnstone to score	77.3%	78.3%	−1.0 pp	1.29
St. Johnstone not to score	22.7%	21.7%	+1.0 pp	4.41
Falkirk FC to score	71.1%	66.3%	+4.8 pp	1.41
Falkirk FC not to score	28.9%	33.7%	−4.8 pp	3.46
Both teams to score	56.8%	53.3%	+3.5 pp	1.76
Both teams not to score	43.2%	46.7%	−3.5 pp	2.32
St. Johnstone 2+ goals	40.7%	46.3%	−5.6 pp	2.46
St. Johnstone at most 1 goal	59.3%	53.7%	+5.6 pp	1.69
Falkirk FC 2+ goals	32.3%	31.3%	+1.0 pp	3.10
Falkirk FC at most 1 goal	67.7%	68.7%	−1.0 pp	1.48
Over 1.5 goals	75.9%	72.9%	+3.0 pp	1.32
Under 1.5 goals	24.1%	27.1%	−3.0 pp	4.15
Over 2.5 goals	47.1%	47.4%	−0.3 pp	2.12
Under 2.5 goals	52.9%	52.6%	+0.3 pp	1.89

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
St. Johnstone sample: 6 matches
Falkirk FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 7 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 7 hours before kick-off

Warnings

St. Johnstone has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.