Serie A expected points table 2026/2027
Every Serie A club ranked on the points its match-by-match chances were worth, with the position the real table gives it and the distance between the two.
Table against xPts
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
- Fewer than 3 places apart
Ranked on expected points
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts vs xPts | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma ROM | 5 | 13 | 11.15 | +1.85 | 1 | Same place as on expected points |
| 2 | Juventus JUV | 5 | 10 | 11.14 | −1.14 | 7 | 5 places below its expected-points rank |
| 3 | Inter INT | 5 | 13 | 11.05 | +1.95 | 2 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 4 | Monza MON | 5 | 4 | 9.45 | −5.45 | 16 | 12 places below its expected-points rank |
| 5 | Fiorentina FIO | 5 | 4 | 8.47 | −4.47 | 17 | 12 places below its expected-points rank |
| 6 | Milan MIL | 5 | 11 | 8.16 | +2.84 | 5 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 7 | Sassuolo SAS | 5 | 7 | 8.14 | −1.14 | 10 | 3 places below its expected-points rank |
| 8 | Lazio LAZ | 5 | 13 | 8.10 | +4.90 | 3 | 5 places above its expected-points rank |
| 9 | Como COM | 5 | 10 | 8.02 | +1.98 | 8 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 10 | Bologna BOL | 5 | 2 | 7.76 | −5.76 | 18 | 8 places below its expected-points rank |
| 11 | Napoli NAP | 5 | 7 | 7.50 | −0.50 | 9 | 2 places above its expected-points rank |
| 12 | Udinese UDI | 5 | 4 | 5.64 | −1.64 | 13 | 1 place below its expected-points rank |
| 13 | Cagliari CAG | 5 | 12 | 5.54 | +6.46 | 4 | 9 places above its expected-points rank |
| 14 | Genoa GEN | 5 | 1 | 5.01 | −4.01 | 19 | 5 places below its expected-points rank |
| 15 | Frosinone FRO | 5 | 10 | 4.92 | +5.08 | 6 | 9 places above its expected-points rank |
| 16 | Venezia VEN | 5 | 0 | 4.63 | −4.63 | 20 | 4 places below its expected-points rank |
| 17 | Torino TOR | 5 | 4 | 4.42 | −0.42 | 14 | 3 places above its expected-points rank |
| 18 | Parma PAR | 5 | 4 | 3.50 | +0.50 | 15 | 3 places above its expected-points rank |
| 19 | Atalanta ATA | 5 | 6 | 3.34 | +2.66 | 11 | 8 places above its expected-points rank |
| 20 | Lecce LEC | 5 | 6 | 2.99 | +3.01 | 12 | 8 places above its expected-points rank |
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
A gap can come from finishing, goalkeeping, game state or chance. xG and xPts are model estimates, not the result a team deserved.
About these figures What each column measures, and the thresholds this ranking is under. Show Hide
- P
- — Matches played
- Pts
- — Points
- xPts
- — Expected points: the points a team's match-by-match xG would be worth on average.
- Pts vs xPts
- — Actual points minus expected points based on match xG.
- Actual
- — Position in the real table
- Diff
- — Places between this ranking and the real table. Up is a club higher in the real table than its expected points place it.
Every club with expected goals behind it is ranked here: these are season totals rather than rates, so a club is not held back by having played fewer matches. The ranking opens once the median club has played 3.