Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 19:00
14d 17h to kick-offAE Kifisia – Aris Thessaloniki
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- AE Kifisia
- 40%
- Draw
- 33%
- Aris Thessaloniki
- 28%
| AE Kifisia | Draw | Aris Thessaloniki | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.53 | 3.07 | 3.58 |
- Total goals
- 2.34
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans AE Kifisia
40% AE Kifisia to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 8th
- AE Kifisia attack v Aris Thessaloniki defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 4th
- AE Kifisia defence v Aris Thessaloniki attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.19 vs -0.13
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.28 – 1.06
- AE Kifisia v Aris Thessaloniki
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | AE Kifisia | Aris Thessaloniki |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.33 · 6th from 4 matches | (better) 1.52 · 5th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.70 · 2nd from 4 matches | 1.81 · 14th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.63 · 5th from 4 matches | -0.28 · 8th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.92 · 4th from 4 matches | 1.39 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.19 | -0.13 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- AE Kifisia clean sheet
- 32%
- AE Kifisia 2+ goals
- 37%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.8%
- 1:0
- 10.0%
- 0:0
- 9.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AE Kifisia sample
- 20 matches
- Aris Thessaloniki sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · AE Kifisia
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Aris Thessaloniki
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.