Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:30
Full timeAris Thessaloniki 0:0 Iraklis 1908
Aris Thessaloniki were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Iraklis 1908's attack: 0.37 xG against 0.91 projected (−0.54).
The model against the result
- Aris Thessaloniki
- 49%
- Draw
- 31% What happened
- Iraklis 1908
- 20%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Iraklis 1908 produced 0.54 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 23
- 6
- On target
- 2
- 1
- Inside the box
- 12
- 1
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 0.64
- 0.33
- Set-piece xG
- 0.89
- 0.02
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.54 for Aris Thessaloniki and 0.37 for Iraklis 1908.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 1.88 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Aris Thessaloniki
- Iraklis 1908
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.52 xG created 1.68 xGA
0.62 xG created 1.43 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged3 won3 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.70 | +13.1% | Won |
| Iraklis 1908 to win | 5.25 | +6.2% | Lost |
| Aris Thessaloniki at most 1 goal | 1.91 | +5.1% | Won |
| Iraklis 1908 to score | 1.67 | +4.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | +1.5% | Lost |
| Aris Thessaloniki not to score | 5.00 | +0.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris Thessaloniki | 49.2% | 56.8% | −7.6 pp | 2.03 |
| Draw | 30.6% | 25.3% | +5.2 pp | 3.27 |
| Iraklis 1908 | 20.2% | 17.9% | +2.4 pp | 4.94 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris Thessaloniki to score | 79.9% | 81.1% | −1.2 pp | 1.25 |
| Aris Thessaloniki not to score | 20.1% | 18.9% | +1.2 pp | 4.98 |
| Iraklis 1908 to score | 62.9% | 55.7% | +7.1 pp | 1.59 |
| Iraklis 1908 not to score | 37.1% | 44.3% | −7.1 pp | 2.69 |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | 48.0% | +4.0 pp | 1.92 |
| Both teams not to score | 48.0% | 52.0% | −4.0 pp | 2.09 |
| Aris Thessaloniki 2+ goals | 44.9% | 51.5% | −6.5 pp | 2.23 |
| Aris Thessaloniki at most 1 goal | 55.1% | 48.5% | +6.5 pp | 1.82 |
| Iraklis 1908 2+ goals | 22.9% | 21.7% | +1.2 pp | 4.38 |
| Iraklis 1908 at most 1 goal | 77.1% | 78.3% | −1.2 pp | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.3% | 72.3% | +1.0 pp | 1.36 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26.7% | 27.7% | −1.0 pp | 3.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.7% | 46.1% | −2.3 pp | 2.29 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.3% | 53.9% | +2.3 pp | 1.78 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aris Thessaloniki sample
- 20 matches
- Iraklis 1908 sample
- 4 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Iraklis 1908 has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.