PS Kalamata 0:1 Panathinaikos: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 18:30

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Match report · Super League Greece

PS Kalamata Home 1.16 xG · 13 shots

Panathinaikos Away 1.72 xG · 14 shots

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

Panathinaikos were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Panathinaikos's attack: 1.72 xG against 1.44 projected (+0.28).

Goals

33' Andreas Tetteh Panathinaikos · 0.05 xG chance 0–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

PS Kalamata: 25%
Draw: 31%
Panathinaikos: 44% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

PS Kalamata 1.06 1.16 +0.10

Panathinaikos 1.44 1.72 +0.28

Panathinaikos produced 0.28 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

PS Kalamata Panathinaikos

Shots: 13; 14
On target: 4; 5
Inside the box: 6; 9
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.13
Open play xG: 0.95; 1.65
Set-piece xG: 0.20; 0.12
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.16 for PS Kalamata and 1.72 for Panathinaikos.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

27 shots · 2.92 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

PS Kalamata
Panathinaikos
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

PS Kalamata

1.29 xG created 1.54 xGA

L 1.41 created, 2.69 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
L 1.02 created, 2.46 conceded against Panetolikos
D 0.46 created, 0.24 conceded against Atromitos Athens
W 2.25 created, 0.76 conceded against NPS Volos

Panathinaikos

1.51 xG created 1.49 xGA

L 0.45 created, 2.16 conceded against AEK Athens
L 0.22 created, 2.07 conceded against Olympiacos FC
D 1.61 created, 2.63 conceded against PAOK
W 1.09 created, 0.96 conceded against APO Levadiakos
W 2.72 created, 1.02 conceded against PAOK
W 2.97 created, 0.11 conceded against Panetolikos

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged2 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on PS Kalamata against Panathinaikos before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
PS Kalamata to win	9.50	+138.9%	Lost
PS Kalamata 2+ goals	6.00	+73.6%	Lost
Panathinaikos not to score	7.00	+48.0%	Lost
Draw	4.50	+39.1%	Lost
Panathinaikos at most 1 goal	2.38	+34.6%	Won
PS Kalamata to score	1.83	+25.6%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.10	+17.3%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.00	+6.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
PS Kalamata	25.2%	9.9%	+15.2 pp	3.98
Draw	30.9%	21.0%	+10.0 pp	3.24
Panathinaikos	43.9%	69.1%	−25.2 pp	2.28

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
PS Kalamata to score	68.5%	50.0%	+18.5 pp	1.46
PS Kalamata not to score	31.5%	50.0%	−18.5 pp	3.17
Panathinaikos to score	78.9%	86.4%	−7.6 pp	1.27
Panathinaikos not to score	21.1%	13.6%	+7.6 pp	4.73
Both teams to score	55.8%	44.3%	+11.6 pp	1.79
Both teams not to score	44.2%	55.7%	−11.6 pp	2.26
PS Kalamata 2+ goals	28.9%	15.8%	+13.1 pp	3.46
PS Kalamata at most 1 goal	71.1%	84.2%	−13.1 pp	1.41
Panathinaikos 2+ goals	43.3%	60.8%	−17.5 pp	2.31
Panathinaikos at most 1 goal	56.7%	39.2%	+17.5 pp	1.76
Over 1.5 goals	75.6%	75.0%	+0.6 pp	1.32
Under 1.5 goals	24.4%	25.0%	−0.6 pp	4.10
Over 2.5 goals	46.7%	52.6%	−5.9 pp	2.14
Under 2.5 goals	53.3%	47.4%	+5.9 pp	1.88

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
PS Kalamata sample: 4 matches
Panathinaikos sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 day before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 day before kick-off

Warnings

PS Kalamata has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.