Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 12:30
14d 11h to kick-offKasımpaşa – Samsunspor
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Kasımpaşa
- 41%
- Draw
- 35%
- Samsunspor
- 25%
| Kasımpaşa | Draw | Samsunspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.46 | 2.88 | 4.07 |
- Total goals
- 2.02
- Over 2.5 goals
- 33%
- Both teams to score
- 45%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Kasımpaşa
41% Kasımpaşa to win
- Attack
- 18th vs 14th
- Kasımpaşa attack v Samsunspor defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 11th
- Kasımpaşa defence v Samsunspor attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.10 vs -0.37
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.16 – 0.87
- Kasımpaşa v Samsunspor
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Kasımpaşa | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.14 · 13th | (better) 1.15 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.04 · 3rd | 1.53 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.10 · 7th | -0.37 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.39 · 9th | 1.02 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.10 | -0.37 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 44% of the model's distribution.
- Kasımpaşa clean sheet
- 39%
- Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
- 33%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 67%
- Both teams to score: no
- 55%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.4%
- 0:0
- 13.2%
- 1:0
- 13.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kasımpaşa sample
- 20 matches
- Samsunspor sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Kasımpaşa
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Samsunspor
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.