AC Horsens's recorded results for 2026/2027, newest first, with the available xG behind each score. Compare outcomes with the chances created and conceded, then open a match for more detail.
Results
- Wins – draws – losses (W–D–L)
- 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses
5 pts 7–9 goals −2 GD
Chances
- Provider xG / xGA
- 4.77 – 9.09
- 0.95 – 1.82 per match
- xGD
- -4.32
- -0.86 per match
- xG record
- 0 with the chances, 2 with even chances, 3 against them
Comparable xG: 5 of 5 completed results.
Points vs xPts Model
5 pts 4.1 xPts
+0.9 vs xPts
Matched xPts: 5 of 5 selected results.
Model · How xPts works →Match points use 3 for a win, 1 for a draw and 0 for a loss, before deductions or sanctions.
Points vs xPts uses only matches with available xPts on both sides of the comparison.
What the results say
Season · All competitions · Home
AC Horsens's mixed record runs ahead of the chances they created and conceded. They out-created the opponent in 1 of 5 matches, for −4.32 xG difference overall on 4.77–9.09. Their points total of 5 sits 0.9 above the model's 4.1 xPts, so the results have slightly outrun the chances. The win against Lyngby came with −2.11 xGD.
Points minus xPts, match by match
Over these 5 results AC Horsens are 0.89 points above their xPts. The gap was widest at +1.96, against Lyngby on Sun 23/08.
- Points
- 5
- xPts
- 4.11
- Gap
- +0.89
- This match
- Match gap
- Running gap
| Date | Opponent | Points | xPts | Match gap | Running gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 26/07 | FC Nordsjælland | 1 | 0.67 | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Sun 09/08 | Brøndby IF | 0 | 1.14 | -1.14 | -0.81 |
| Sun 23/08 | Lyngby | 3 | 0.23 | +2.77 | +1.96 |
| Fri 28/08 | Viborg FF | 0 | 0.58 | -0.58 | +1.38 |
| Sun 20/09 | AGF | 1 | 1.49 | -0.49 | +0.89 |
Scores and xG
AC Horsens first
-
Match analysis →
Why this label · AGF, Sun 20/09
The match was drawn and the chance difference was approximately even. The two readings broadly align.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 1
- Post-match model xPts
- 1.49
- Points minus xPts
- -0.49
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · Viborg FF, Fri 28/08
The team lost and recorded less xG than its opponent. The direction of the result aligns with the chance difference.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 0
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.58
- Points minus xPts
- -0.58
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · Lyngby, Sun 23/08
The team won despite recording less xG than its opponent. That contrast does not make the win impossible or establish why it happened.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 3
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.23
- Points minus xPts
- +2.77
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · Brøndby IF, Sun 09/08
The team lost, while the chance difference was approximately even. The outcome was weaker than that difference alone suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 0
- Post-match model xPts
- 1.14
- Points minus xPts
- -1.14
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated → -
Match analysis →
Why this label · FC Nordsjælland, Sun 26/07
The match was drawn although the team recorded less xG. The outcome was stronger than that chance difference suggests.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
- Points
- 1
- Post-match model xPts
- 0.67
- Points minus xPts
- +0.33
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
Learn how xG and xPts are calculated →
Biggest overperformance
Lyngby 2:1
· Home xG / xGA 0.76 – 2.87
- Goal difference
- +1
- xGD
- -2.11
- GD minus xGD
- +3.11
Among 5 comparable results.
Open match →
Biggest underperformance
Brøndby IF 0:2
· Home xG / xGA 0.49 – 0.63
- Goal difference
- -2
- xGD
- -0.14
- GD minus xGD
- -1.86
Among 5 comparable results.
Open match →
Reading these results
xG is the provider's estimate of chances created; xGA is the opponent's xG. xGD is the difference. Labels compare the recorded outcome with those chances; they are interpretations, not judgments about fairness.
xPts is our post-match model's 3 × win probability + draw probability using the match's provider xG, not a pre-match forecast.
How each figure on this page is read
Every xG bar is drawn on one fixed scale: full width is 7.20 xG, the same on every card and in every window, so two cards can be compared by eye. A rarer match above that is capped with a hatched end, and the figure beside the bar still gives its value.
An xGD of at least +0.25 is positive; at most −0.25 is negative; between them is approximately even. The band uses unrounded figures and is an editorial guide, not a statistical confidence threshold. The chip on each result reads one of three ways: backed by the chances, with even chances, or against them. Counted over the selection, those three are the xG record on the Chances card — 5–1–0 reads as five results with the chances, one even and none against them.
Goal difference minus xGD says how far a scoreline finished from the chances behind it: a 4:2 won off level chances ran nearly two goals ahead of them. The two callouts under the list name the match that ran furthest each way, and a direction with no result a full goal clear of the chances gets no card rather than a card built from a rounding.
Windows count back from the most recent recorded match, and only matches attached to this club record are included. Home and away mean the provider-designated side, not a verified physical venue. Scores describe recorded play, not shootout advancement. Unverified periods receive no chance comparison.