Randers FC – FC Nordsjælland prediction, 8 November 2026 · Superliga (Denmark)

Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 16:00 Sun 8 November, 16:00

1d 21h to kick-off

Match preview · Superliga (Denmark)

Randers FC Home 10th in Superliga (Denmark)

1.29

FC Nordsjælland Away 5th in Superliga (Denmark)

1.74 Projected xG

Randers FC: 26%; Mkt 21% Market 21%; Fair 3.85 Fair odds 3.85
Draw: 27%; Mkt 23% Market 23%; Fair 3.64 Fair odds 3.64
FC Nordsjælland: 47%; Mkt 56% Market 56%; Fair 2.15 Fair odds 2.15

2 qualified edges: FC Nordsjælland at most 1 goal, Randers FC to win

Each passes the rule the Betting section applies, at this moment. How this is decided →

Data coverage · full

Randers FC 20/20
FC Nordsjælland 20/20

Model updated 6 November, 18:30
Top odds updated 5 November, 18:00

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices.

FC Nordsjælland at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +15.7%

Model 46.3%

Market 37.5%

Fair odds 2.16 Bookmaker odds 2.50

Model skill: +2.61%
Randers FC to win Match result

Edge +12.4%

Model 25.9%

Market 21.0%

Fair odds 3.85 Bookmaker odds 4.33

Model skill: +7.19%
Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +7.3%

Model 39.7%

Market 34.8%

Fair odds 2.52 Bookmaker odds 2.70

Model skill: -0.89%
Randers FC to score Goals by team

Edge +0.3%

Model 75.3%

Market 70.9%

Fair odds 1.33 Bookmaker odds 1.33

Model skill: +3.77%

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Match result

Randers FC to win Match result

Edge +12.4%

Model 25.9%

Market 21.0%

Fair odds 3.85 Bookmaker odds 4.33

Model skill: +7.19%
Draw Match result

Edge +9.8%

Model 27.4%

Market 22.7%

Fair odds 3.64 Bookmaker odds 4.00

Model skill: -1.04%
FC Nordsjælland to win Match result

Edge -24.7%

Model 46.6%

Market 56.3%

Fair odds 2.15 Bookmaker odds 1.62

Model skill: +7.20%

Model against the market

Randers FC to win

Model: 25.9%
Market, margin removed: 21.0%

Probability gap: +5.0 pp
Edge: +12.4%
Fair odds: 3.85
Market odds: 4.33 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 4.05
Bookmaker margin: 10.0%

Draw

Model: 27.4%
Market, margin removed: 22.7%

Probability gap: +4.7 pp
Edge: +9.8%
Fair odds: 3.64
Market odds: 4.00 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 3.83
Bookmaker margin: 10.0%

FC Nordsjælland to win

Model: 46.6%
Market, margin removed: 56.3%

Probability gap: −9.7 pp
Edge: −24.7%
Fair odds: 2.15
Market odds: 1.62 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins: 2.25
Bookmaker margin: 10.0%

Goals

Under 2.5 goals Goals

Edge +7.3%

Model 39.7%

Market 34.8%

Fair odds 2.52 Bookmaker odds 2.70

Model skill: -0.89%
Over 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -5.1%

Model 84.4%

Market 84.2%

Fair odds 1.19 Bookmaker odds 1.13

Model skill: -0.01%
Under 1.5 goals Goals

Edge -6.2%

Model 15.6%

Market 15.8%

Fair odds 6.39 Bookmaker odds 6.00

Model skill: -0.01%
Over 2.5 goals Goals

Edge -13.0%

Model 60.3%

Market 65.2%

Fair odds 1.66 Bookmaker odds 1.44

Model skill: -0.89%

Both teams to score

Both teams to score Both teams to score

Edge -2.0%

Model 65.3%

Market 62.5%

Fair odds 1.53 Bookmaker odds 1.50

Model skill: -0.43%
Both teams not to score Both teams to score

Edge -13.3%

Model 34.7%

Market 37.5%

Fair odds 2.88 Bookmaker odds 2.50

Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

FC Nordsjælland at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge +15.7%

Model 46.3%

Market 37.5%

Fair odds 2.16 Bookmaker odds 2.50

Model skill: +2.61%
FC Nordsjælland not to score Goals by team

Edge +6.7%

Model 15.2%

Market 13.6%

Fair odds 6.56 Bookmaker odds 7.00

Model skill: +2.56% Kept answer: FC Nordsjælland at most 1 goal +15.7%
Randers FC to score Goals by team

Edge +0.3%

Model 75.3%

Market 70.9%

Fair odds 1.33 Bookmaker odds 1.33

Model skill: +3.77%
Randers FC 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -0.5%

Model 37.9%

Market 35.5%

Fair odds 2.64 Bookmaker odds 2.63

Model skill: +3.62%
FC Nordsjælland to score Goals by team

Edge -6.8%

Model 84.8%

Market 86.4%

Fair odds 1.18 Bookmaker odds 1.10

Model skill: +2.56%
Randers FC at most 1 goal Goals by team

Edge -10.3%

Model 62.1%

Market 64.5%

Fair odds 1.61 Bookmaker odds 1.44

Model skill: +3.62%
FC Nordsjælland 2+ goals Goals by team

Edge -19.4%

Model 53.7%

Market 62.5%

Fair odds 1.86 Bookmaker odds 1.50

Model skill: +2.61%
Randers FC not to score Goals by team

Edge -19.6%

Model 24.7%

Market 29.1%

Fair odds 4.04 Bookmaker odds 3.25

Model skill: +3.77%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

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Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Randers FC xG 1.60 xGA 1.84

L 1.68 created, 1.14 conceded against Odense Boldklub
L 1.57 created, 1.36 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
L 0.94 created, 2.12 conceded against Viborg FF
D 1.88 created, 0.50 conceded against AC Horsens
L 1.31 created, 3.19 conceded against Brøndby IF
L 2.23 created, 2.72 conceded against Lyngby

FC Nordsjælland xG 2.19 xGA 1.52

W 2.79 created, 1.26 conceded against AGF
L 1.32 created, 2.60 conceded against Viborg FF
D 2.01 created, 0.39 conceded against Odense Boldklub
D 2.47 created, 2.10 conceded against Lyngby
D 0.85 created, 0.62 conceded against Silkeborg IF
L 3.67 created, 2.16 conceded against FC Midtjylland

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals: 3.03
Over 2.5 goals: 60%
Both teams to score: 65%
FC Nordsjælland 2+ goals: 54%
FC Nordsjælland clean sheet: 25%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.

1:1: 13.1%
1:2: 10.8%
2:1: 7.8%

Why the model favours FC Nordsjælland

Attack, defence and recent form all point to FC Nordsjælland.

Attack: Favours FC Nordsjælland; 1st vs 10th; FC Nordsjælland attack v Randers FC defence
Defence: Favours FC Nordsjælland; 4th vs 10th; FC Nordsjælland defence v Randers FC attack
Recent xG form: Favours FC Nordsjælland; +0.66 vs -0.24; xGD per match, last 6

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Randers FC and FC Nordsjælland compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Randers FC	FC Nordsjælland
xG / match	1.22 · 10th	(better) 2.32 · 1st
xGA / match	1.80 · 12th	(better) 1.39 · 5th
xGD / match	-0.58 · joint 10th	(better) +0.93 · 1st
xPts / match	1.03 · 11th	(better) 1.93 · 1st
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.24	(better) +0.66

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Randers FC and FC Nordsjælland compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Randers FC	FC Nordsjælland
xG / match	1.22 · 10th	(better) 2.32 · 1st
npxG / match	1.06	(better) 2.14
Shots / match	11.2 · 11th	(better) 17.8 · 1st
npxG / shot	0.10 · 8th	(better) 0.12 · 1st

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Randers FC and FC Nordsjælland compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Randers FC	FC Nordsjælland
xGA / match	1.80 · 12th	(better) 1.39 · 5th
Shots faced / match	16.1 · 11th	(better) 12.8 · 3rd
npxGA / shot	0.10 · 9th	(better) 0.10 · 5th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Randers FC and FC Nordsjælland compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Randers FC	FC Nordsjælland
Last 6 xG / match	1.60	(better) 2.19
Last 6 xGA / match	1.84	(better) 1.52
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.24	(better) +0.66

Head to head

Randers FC 1 Draws 0 FC Nordsjælland 2

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How the edge is calculated

Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Match result

Randers FC to win

25.9% 3.85 —

Draw

27.4% 3.64 —

FC Nordsjælland to win

46.6% 2.15 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

84.4% 1.19 —

Under 1.5 goals

15.6% 6.39 —

Over 2.5 goals

60.3% 1.66 —

Under 2.5 goals

39.7% 2.52 —

Both teams to score

65.3% 1.53 —

Both teams not to score

34.7% 2.88 —

Team goals — Randers FC

Randers FC to score

75.3% 1.33 —

Randers FC not to score

24.7% 4.04 —

Randers FC 2+ goals

37.9% 2.64 —

Randers FC at most 1 goal

62.1% 1.61 —

Team goals — FC Nordsjælland

FC Nordsjælland to score

84.8% 1.18 —

FC Nordsjælland not to score

15.2% 6.56 —

FC Nordsjælland 2+ goals

53.7% 1.86 —

FC Nordsjælland at most 1 goal

46.3% 2.16 —

What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Randers FC xG 1.60 xGA 1.84

L 1.68 created, 1.14 conceded against Odense Boldklub
L 1.57 created, 1.36 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
L 0.94 created, 2.12 conceded against Viborg FF
D 1.88 created, 0.50 conceded against AC Horsens
L 1.31 created, 3.19 conceded against Brøndby IF
L 2.23 created, 2.72 conceded against Lyngby

FC Nordsjælland xG 2.19 xGA 1.52

W 2.79 created, 1.26 conceded against AGF
L 1.32 created, 2.60 conceded against Viborg FF
D 2.01 created, 0.39 conceded against Odense Boldklub
D 2.47 created, 2.10 conceded against Lyngby
D 0.85 created, 0.62 conceded against Silkeborg IF
L 3.67 created, 2.16 conceded against FC Midtjylland

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Randers FC 1 Draws 0 FC Nordsjælland 2

Where the model disagrees with the market

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Goals by team

Recent form

Goals & scorelines

Most likely scorelines

Why the model favours FC Nordsjælland

Team comparison

Randers FC attack → FC Nordsjælland defence

FC Nordsjælland attack → Randers FC defence

Head to head

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Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Randers FC

Team goals — FC Nordsjælland

What the model doesn't know