Sepsi OSK 3:1 CFR 1907 Cluj: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 17:30

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Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Sepsi OSK Home 2.41 xG

CFR 1907 Cluj Away 1.89 xG

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Sepsi OSK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Sepsi OSK's attack: 2.41 xG against 1.43 projected (+0.98). CFR 1907 Cluj produced 1.89 xG against 1.37 projected (+0.52).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Sepsi OSK: 37% What happened
Draw: 30%
CFR 1907 Cluj: 34%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Sepsi OSK 1.43 2.41 +0.98

CFR 1907 Cluj 1.37 1.89 +0.52

Sepsi OSK produced 0.98 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Sepsi OSK CFR 1907 Cluj

Shots: 14; 16
On target: 7; 6
Inside the box: 10; 9
xG per shot: 0.17; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Sepsi OSK

1.14 xG created 1.57 xGA

D 0.86 created, 1.90 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
D 1.31 created, 0.72 conceded against FCSB
D 1.31 created, 1.34 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
D 1.53 created, 0.72 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
W 0.65 created, 0.95 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
L 1.19 created, 3.79 conceded against FC Botoșani

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.62 xG created 1.92 xGA

D 1.29 created, 0.56 conceded against FC Dinamo București
L 0.83 created, 3.24 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
W 2.88 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Voluntari
L 1.17 created, 3.84 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
W 1.54 created, 1.74 conceded against FCSB
W 2.02 created, 0.96 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged6 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Sepsi OSK against CFR 1907 Cluj before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals	3.25	+33.2%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.10	+31.6%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	2.40	+31.4%	Won
Sepsi OSK 2+ goals	2.75	+18.4%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.44	+17.1%	Won
CFR 1907 Cluj to score	1.44	+11.9%	Won
Sepsi OSK to score	1.40	+10.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sepsi OSK	36.5%	34.4%	+2.1 pp	2.74
Draw	29.7%	30.1%	−0.5 pp	3.37
CFR 1907 Cluj	33.8%	35.4%	−1.6 pp	2.96

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Sepsi OSK to score	78.7%	66.3%	+12.4 pp	1.27
Sepsi OSK not to score	21.3%	33.7%	−12.4 pp	4.69
CFR 1907 Cluj to score	77.5%	64.5%	+13.0 pp	1.29
CFR 1907 Cluj not to score	22.5%	35.5%	−13.0 pp	4.44
Both teams to score	62.7%	44.3%	+18.4 pp	1.60
Both teams not to score	37.3%	55.7%	−18.4 pp	2.68
Sepsi OSK 2+ goals	43.1%	33.7%	+9.3 pp	2.32
Sepsi OSK at most 1 goal	56.9%	66.3%	−9.3 pp	1.76
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals	41.0%	29.1%	+11.9 pp	2.44
CFR 1907 Cluj at most 1 goal	59.0%	70.9%	−11.9 pp	1.69
Over 1.5 goals	81.1%	64.3%	+16.8 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.9%	35.7%	−16.8 pp	5.29
Over 2.5 goals	54.8%	38.5%	+16.3 pp	1.83
Under 2.5 goals	45.2%	61.5%	−16.3 pp	2.21

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Sepsi OSK sample: 8 matches
CFR 1907 Cluj sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Sepsi OSK has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.