Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 15:00
32d 4h to kick-offCFR 1907 Cluj – Universitatea Craiova
Model updated 6 October, 09:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- CFR 1907 Cluj
- 31%
- Draw
- 29%
- Universitatea Craiova
- 40%
| CFR 1907 Cluj | Draw | Universitatea Craiova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.21 | 3.49 | 2.49 |
- Total goals
- 2.96
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Universitatea Craiova
40% Universitatea Craiova to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 8th
- Universitatea Craiova attack v CFR 1907 Cluj defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 5th
- Universitatea Craiova defence v CFR 1907 Cluj attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.28 vs +0.35
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.38 – 1.58
- CFR 1907 Cluj v Universitatea Craiova
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | CFR 1907 Cluj | Universitatea Craiova |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.99 · 4th | (better) 2.45 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 2.04 · 13th | (better) 1.11 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.05 · 9th | (better) +1.34 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.43 · 8th | (better) 2.03 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.35 | (better) +1.29 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Universitatea Craiova clean sheet
- 22%
- Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.8%
- 1:2
- 10.2%
- 2:1
- 8.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- CFR 1907 Cluj sample
- 20 matches
- Universitatea Craiova sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · CFR 1907 Cluj
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Universitatea Craiova
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 09:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.