Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 15:00
20d 13h to kick-offFC Argeș Pitești – UTA Arad
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Argeș Pitești
- 37%
- Draw
- 32%
- UTA Arad
- 31%
| FC Argeș Pitești | Draw | UTA Arad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.70 | 3.17 | 3.18 |
- Total goals
- 2.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Argeș Pitești
37% FC Argeș Pitești to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 6th
- FC Argeș Pitești attack v UTA Arad defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 8th
- FC Argeș Pitești defence v UTA Arad attack
- Recent xG form
- 0.00 vs +0.54
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.31 – 1.20
- FC Argeș Pitești v UTA Arad
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Argeș Pitești | UTA Arad |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.18 · 15th | (better) 1.87 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.21 · 4th | 1.24 · 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.03 · 8th | (better) +0.63 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.37 · 10th | (better) 1.78 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.00 | (better) +0.54 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- FC Argeș Pitești clean sheet
- 27%
- FC Argeș Pitești 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.2%
- 2:1
- 9.8%
- 1:2
- 8.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Argeș Pitești sample
- 20 matches
- UTA Arad sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Argeș Pitești
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · UTA Arad
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.