UTA Arad 1:0 Sepsi OSK: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Friday, 18/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

UTA Arad Home 2.50 xG

Sepsi OSK Away 0.72 xG

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

UTA Arad were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 56%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was UTA Arad's attack: 2.50 xG against 1.95 projected (+0.55). Sepsi OSK produced 0.72 xG against 1.14 projected (−0.42).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

UTA Arad: 56% What happened
Draw: 25%
Sepsi OSK: 19%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

UTA Arad 1.95 2.50 +0.55

Sepsi OSK 1.14 0.72 -0.42

UTA Arad produced 0.55 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

UTA Arad Sepsi OSK

Shots: 28; 10
On target: 9; 2
Inside the box: 15; 5
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.07

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

UTA Arad

1.76 xG created 1.55 xGA

D 0.84 created, 1.05 conceded against FC Rapid București
L 2.47 created, 2.30 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
D 1.35 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
W 1.08 created, 1.45 conceded against FCSB
W 2.86 created, 1.16 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
L 1.98 created, 2.07 conceded against FC Farul Constanța

Sepsi OSK

1.40 xG created 1.57 xGA

D 1.31 created, 0.72 conceded against FCSB
D 1.31 created, 1.34 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
D 1.53 created, 0.72 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
W 0.65 created, 0.95 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
L 1.19 created, 3.79 conceded against FC Botoșani
W 2.41 created, 1.89 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged2 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on UTA Arad against Sepsi OSK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	2.10	+29.4%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.83	+16.6%	Lost
UTA Arad 2+ goals	1.91	+15.1%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.33	+13.4%	Lost
Sepsi OSK 2+ goals	3.50	+11.5%	Lost
Sepsi OSK to score	1.53	+8.4%	Lost
UTA Arad to score	1.20	+5.6%	Won
UTA Arad to win	1.80	+0.3%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
UTA Arad	55.7%	49.6%	+6.1 pp	1.79
Draw	25.3%	27.5%	−2.2 pp	3.96
Sepsi OSK	19.0%	22.9%	−3.9 pp	5.26

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
UTA Arad to score	88.0%	78.3%	+9.7 pp	1.14
UTA Arad not to score	12.0%	21.7%	−9.7 pp	8.32
Sepsi OSK to score	70.7%	60.8%	+10.0 pp	1.41
Sepsi OSK not to score	29.3%	39.2%	−10.0 pp	3.42
Both teams to score	63.6%	50.0%	+13.6 pp	1.57
Both teams not to score	36.4%	50.0%	−13.6 pp	2.75
UTA Arad 2+ goals	60.3%	48.5%	+11.8 pp	1.66
UTA Arad at most 1 goal	39.7%	51.5%	−11.8 pp	2.52
Sepsi OSK 2+ goals	31.9%	26.9%	+5.0 pp	3.14
Sepsi OSK at most 1 goal	68.1%	73.1%	−5.0 pp	1.47
Over 1.5 goals	85.1%	69.2%	+15.9 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	14.9%	30.8%	−15.9 pp	6.71
Over 2.5 goals	61.6%	44.0%	+17.6 pp	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	38.4%	56.0%	−17.6 pp	2.61

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
UTA Arad sample: 20 matches
Sepsi OSK sample: 9 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Sepsi OSK has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.