Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 15:00
26d 7h to kick-offFC Dinamo București – UTA Arad
Model updated 5 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Dinamo București
- 58%
- Draw
- 24%
- UTA Arad
- 17%
| FC Dinamo București | Draw | UTA Arad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.72 | 4.10 | 5.75 |
- Total goals
- 3.16
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Dinamo București
58% FC Dinamo București to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 6th
- FC Dinamo București attack v UTA Arad defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 8th
- FC Dinamo București defence v UTA Arad attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.92 vs +0.54
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.04 – 1.12
- FC Dinamo București v UTA Arad
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Dinamo București | UTA Arad |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.17 · 3rd | 1.87 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.15 · 3rd | 1.24 · 5th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.02 · 2nd | +0.63 · 4th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.04 · 1st | 1.78 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.92 | +0.54 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- FC Dinamo București clean sheet
- 30%
- FC Dinamo București 2+ goals
- 63%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.7%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 8.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Dinamo București sample
- 20 matches
- UTA Arad sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Dinamo București
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · UTA Arad
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.