Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 19:30
Full timeFC Dinamo București 2:0 UTA Arad
FC Dinamo București were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 59%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was UTA Arad's attack: 0.34 xG against 1.08 projected (−0.74). FC Dinamo București produced 1.38 xG against 2.03 projected (−0.65).
The model against the result
- FC Dinamo București
- 59% What happened
- Draw
- 24%
- UTA Arad
- 17%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
UTA Arad produced 0.74 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 13
- On target
- 4
- 4
- Inside the box
- 12
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.03
Recent form
2.57 xG created 0.88 xGA
- W 3.26 created, 0.68 conceded against FCSB
- W 2.25 created, 0.78 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- W 2.74 created, 1.42 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
- W 1.95 created, 0.97 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- W 3.85 created, 0.44 conceded against FC Botoșani
- D 1.40 created, 1.02 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
1.80 xG created 1.72 xGA
- W 2.86 created, 1.16 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- L 1.98 created, 2.07 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
- W 2.50 created, 0.72 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- L 1.03 created, 4.32 conceded against FC Botoșani
- W 1.60 created, 0.73 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
- W 0.84 created, 1.35 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged2 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTA Arad 2+ goals | 4.50 | +33.5% | Lost |
| UTA Arad to score | 1.73 | +19.5% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +15.1% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +14.7% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +6.6% | Won |
| FC Dinamo București 2+ goals | 1.62 | +0.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dinamo București | 58.7% | 59.5% | −0.8 pp | 1.70 |
| Draw | 24.4% | 23.5% | +0.9 pp | 4.09 |
| UTA Arad | 16.9% | 17.0% | −0.1 pp | 5.93 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dinamo București to score | 88.8% | 84.2% | +4.6 pp | 1.13 |
| FC Dinamo București not to score | 11.2% | 15.8% | −4.6 pp | 8.93 |
| UTA Arad to score | 69.2% | 53.7% | +15.5 pp | 1.45 |
| UTA Arad not to score | 30.8% | 46.3% | −15.5 pp | 3.24 |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% | 50.0% | +12.8 pp | 1.59 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.2% | 50.0% | −12.8 pp | 2.69 |
| FC Dinamo București 2+ goals | 62.3% | 57.7% | +4.6 pp | 1.61 |
| FC Dinamo București at most 1 goal | 37.7% | 42.3% | −4.6 pp | 2.65 |
| UTA Arad 2+ goals | 29.7% | 20.8% | +8.9 pp | 3.37 |
| UTA Arad at most 1 goal | 70.3% | 79.2% | −8.9 pp | 1.42 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.3% | 75.0% | +10.3 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.7% | 25.0% | −10.3 pp | 6.80 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% | 51.3% | +10.7 pp | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.0% | 48.7% | −10.7 pp | 2.63 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Dinamo București sample
- 20 matches
- UTA Arad sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 40 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.