UTA Arad 1:0 CFR 1907 Cluj: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 17:15

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

UTA Arad Home 1.60 xG

CFR 1907 Cluj Away 0.73 xG

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

UTA Arad were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was CFR 1907 Cluj's attack: 0.73 xG against 1.40 projected (−0.67).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

UTA Arad: 46% What happened
Draw: 27%
CFR 1907 Cluj: 27%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

UTA Arad 1.82 1.60 -0.22

CFR 1907 Cluj 1.40 0.73 -0.67

CFR 1907 Cluj produced 0.67 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

UTA Arad CFR 1907 Cluj

Shots: 24; 6
On target: 8; 1
Inside the box: 14; 4
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

UTA Arad

1.80 xG created 1.84 xGA

D 1.35 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
W 1.08 created, 1.45 conceded against FCSB
W 2.86 created, 1.16 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
L 1.98 created, 2.07 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
W 2.50 created, 0.72 conceded against Sepsi OSK
L 1.03 created, 4.32 conceded against FC Botoșani

CFR 1907 Cluj

2.19 xG created 1.84 xGA

W 2.88 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Voluntari
L 1.17 created, 3.84 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
W 1.54 created, 1.74 conceded against FCSB
W 2.02 created, 0.96 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
L 1.89 created, 2.41 conceded against Sepsi OSK
W 3.62 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Botoșani

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

UTA Arad: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 qualified edges flagged1 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on UTA Arad against CFR 1907 Cluj before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.85	+19.3%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.73	+18.6%	Lost
UTA Arad 2+ goals	2.10	+18.1%	Lost
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals	2.75	+15.3%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+8.5%	Lost
CFR 1907 Cluj to score	1.36	+6.6%	Lost
UTA Arad to score	1.22	+5.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
UTA Arad	46.1%	41.6%	+4.5 pp	2.17
Draw	26.7%	27.5%	−0.8 pp	3.75
CFR 1907 Cluj	27.2%	30.9%	−3.7 pp	3.68

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
UTA Arad to score	86.1%	76.6%	+9.5 pp	1.16
UTA Arad not to score	13.9%	23.4%	−9.5 pp	7.18
CFR 1907 Cluj to score	78.1%	68.7%	+9.4 pp	1.28
CFR 1907 Cluj not to score	21.9%	31.3%	−9.4 pp	4.57
Both teams to score	68.7%	53.7%	+15.0 pp	1.46
Both teams not to score	31.3%	46.3%	−15.0 pp	3.19
UTA Arad 2+ goals	56.2%	44.3%	+12.0 pp	1.78
UTA Arad at most 1 goal	43.8%	55.7%	−12.0 pp	2.29
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals	41.9%	33.7%	+8.2 pp	2.39
CFR 1907 Cluj at most 1 goal	58.1%	66.3%	−8.2 pp	1.72
Over 1.5 goals	86.8%	75.0%	+11.8 pp	1.15
Under 1.5 goals	13.2%	25.0%	−11.8 pp	7.57
Over 2.5 goals	64.5%	51.3%	+13.2 pp	1.55
Under 2.5 goals	35.5%	48.7%	−13.2 pp	2.81

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
UTA Arad sample: 20 matches
CFR 1907 Cluj sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.