FC Rapid București 2:1 FC Voluntari: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 20:30

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

FC Rapid București Home 1.93 xG

FC Voluntari Away 1.09 xG

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

FC Rapid București were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 70%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FC Rapid București's attack: 1.93 xG against 2.52 projected (−0.59).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Rapid București: 70% What happened
Draw: 19%
FC Voluntari: 11%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FC Rapid București 2.52 1.93 -0.59

FC Voluntari 1.05 1.09 +0.04

FC Rapid București produced 0.59 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FC Rapid București FC Voluntari

Shots: 24; 12
On target: 7; 6
Inside the box: 16; 6
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Rapid București

1.68 xG created 1.29 xGA

D 1.45 created, 1.79 conceded against FC Botoșani
D 1.05 created, 0.84 conceded against UTA Arad
L 1.72 created, 1.42 conceded against FC Dinamo București
W 1.31 created, 1.26 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
D 1.39 created, 1.95 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
W 3.19 created, 0.48 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați

FC Voluntari

1.62 xG created 2.74 xGA

D 2.88 created, 2.57 conceded against FC Botoșani
L 1.16 created, 2.88 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
W 0.79 created, 1.51 conceded against UTA Arad
L 2.04 created, 2.23 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
L 0.87 created, 4.58 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
D 1.96 created, 2.65 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged6 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Won
Won
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Rapid București against FC Voluntari before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FC Voluntari 2+ goals	5.50	+56.9%	Lost
FC Voluntari to score	1.83	+24.9%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.73	+23.5%	Won
Both teams to score	1.83	+18.5%	Won
FC Rapid București 2+ goals	1.50	+11.2%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+10.2%	Won
FC Rapid București to score	1.10	+2.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Rapid București	69.7%	67.0%	+2.6 pp	1.44
Draw	19.0%	21.8%	−2.8 pp	5.25
FC Voluntari	11.3%	11.2%	+0.1 pp	8.85

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Rapid București to score	93.5%	86.4%	+7.0 pp	1.07
FC Rapid București not to score	6.5%	13.6%	−7.0 pp	15.29
FC Voluntari to score	68.1%	50.0%	+18.1 pp	1.47
FC Voluntari not to score	31.9%	50.0%	−18.1 pp	3.14
Both teams to score	64.7%	50.0%	+14.7 pp	1.55
Both teams not to score	35.3%	50.0%	−14.7 pp	2.83
FC Rapid București 2+ goals	74.1%	62.5%	+11.6 pp	1.35
FC Rapid București at most 1 goal	25.9%	37.5%	−11.6 pp	3.86
FC Voluntari 2+ goals	28.5%	17.2%	+11.3 pp	3.51
FC Voluntari at most 1 goal	71.5%	82.8%	−11.3 pp	1.40
Over 1.5 goals	90.2%	76.6%	+13.6 pp	1.11
Under 1.5 goals	9.8%	23.4%	−13.6 pp	10.15
Over 2.5 goals	71.5%	54.6%	+17.0 pp	1.40
Under 2.5 goals	28.5%	45.4%	−17.0 pp	3.51

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Rapid București sample: 20 matches
FC Voluntari sample: 7 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FC Voluntari has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.