Monday, 02/11/2026 at 19:30
Full timeFC Universitatea Cluj 1:0 FCSB
FC Universitatea Cluj were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FCSB's attack: 1.13 xG against 1.57 projected (−0.44).
The model against the result
- FC Universitatea Cluj
- 41% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- FCSB
- 32%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FCSB produced 0.44 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 15
- On target
- 4
- 4
- Inside the box
- 7
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.19
- 0.08
Recent form
1.75 xG created 1.31 xGA
- L 0.66 created, 2.05 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- W 1.78 created, 0.20 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- W 2.49 created, 1.43 conceded against FC Voluntari
- L 1.85 created, 1.22 conceded against FC Rapid București
- D 1.80 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- W 1.92 created, 1.47 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
2.50 xG created 1.52 xGA
- L 0.68 created, 3.26 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- D 6.31 created, 1.24 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- L 0.61 created, 3.14 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- W 2.02 created, 0.42 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- W 3.04 created, 0.76 conceded against FC Voluntari
- W 2.32 created, 0.29 conceded against FC Rapid București
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged2 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals | 2.10 | +14.2% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | +8.0% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | +6.6% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | +4.1% | Lost |
| FC Universitatea Cluj to score | 1.22 | +4.0% | Won |
| FC Universitatea Cluj to win | 2.50 | +2.2% | Won |
| FCSB to score | 1.22 | +0.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Universitatea Cluj | 40.9% | 36.0% | +4.9 pp | 2.45 |
| Draw | 26.6% | 26.5% | +0.2 pp | 3.75 |
| FCSB | 32.5% | 37.5% | −5.0 pp | 3.08 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Universitatea Cluj to score | 85.1% | 76.6% | +8.5 pp | 1.17 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj not to score | 14.9% | 23.4% | −8.5 pp | 6.72 |
| FCSB to score | 81.9% | 76.6% | +5.3 pp | 1.22 |
| FCSB not to score | 18.1% | 23.4% | −5.3 pp | 5.53 |
| Both teams to score | 71.1% | 62.5% | +8.6 pp | 1.41 |
| Both teams not to score | 28.9% | 37.5% | −8.6 pp | 3.45 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals | 54.4% | 44.3% | +10.1 pp | 1.84 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj at most 1 goal | 45.6% | 55.7% | −10.1 pp | 2.19 |
| FCSB 2+ goals | 48.2% | 46.3% | +1.8 pp | 2.08 |
| FCSB at most 1 goal | 51.8% | 53.7% | −1.8 pp | 1.93 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.1% | 79.2% | +8.9 pp | 1.14 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11.9% | 20.8% | −8.9 pp | 8.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.9% | 58.2% | +8.7 pp | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.1% | 41.8% | −8.7 pp | 3.02 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Universitatea Cluj sample
- 20 matches
- FCSB sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 59 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.