Monday, 19/10/2026 at 20:00
Full timeFC Voluntari 1:2 FCSB
FCSB were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FCSB's attack: 3.04 xG against 1.91 projected (+1.13). FC Voluntari produced 0.76 xG against 1.67 projected (−0.91).
The model against the result
- FC Voluntari
- 32%
- Draw
- 25%
- FCSB
- 42% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
FCSB produced 1.13 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 18
- On target
- 2
- 7
- Inside the box
- 6
- 13
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.17
Recent form
1.52 xG created 2.74 xGA
- L 2.04 created, 2.23 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- L 0.87 created, 4.58 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- D 1.96 created, 2.65 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- L 1.09 created, 1.93 conceded against FC Rapid București
- L 1.43 created, 2.49 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- L 1.70 created, 2.58 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
2.14 xG created 1.78 xGA
- L 1.74 created, 1.54 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
- L 1.45 created, 1.08 conceded against UTA Arad
- L 0.68 created, 3.26 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- D 6.31 created, 1.24 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- L 0.61 created, 3.14 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- W 2.02 created, 0.42 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged4 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Voluntari 2+ goals | 3.40 | +75.6% | Lost |
| FC Voluntari to win | 5.00 | +61.4% | Lost |
| FC Voluntari to score | 1.50 | +25.6% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +23.9% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | +12.6% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | +5.5% | Won |
| Draw | 4.00 | +1.4% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Voluntari | 32.3% | 17.9% | +14.4 pp | 3.10 |
| Draw | 25.4% | 22.4% | +3.0 pp | 3.94 |
| FCSB | 42.4% | 59.7% | −17.3 pp | 2.36 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Voluntari to score | 83.7% | 62.5% | +21.2 pp | 1.19 |
| FC Voluntari not to score | 16.3% | 37.5% | −21.2 pp | 6.15 |
| FCSB to score | 87.3% | 86.4% | +0.9 pp | 1.15 |
| FCSB not to score | 12.7% | 13.6% | −0.9 pp | 7.88 |
| Both teams to score | 74.3% | 55.7% | +18.6 pp | 1.35 |
| Both teams not to score | 25.7% | 44.3% | −18.6 pp | 3.89 |
| FC Voluntari 2+ goals | 51.6% | 27.7% | +24.0 pp | 1.94 |
| FC Voluntari at most 1 goal | 48.4% | 72.3% | −24.0 pp | 2.07 |
| FCSB 2+ goals | 58.9% | 60.8% | −1.9 pp | 1.70 |
| FCSB at most 1 goal | 41.1% | 39.2% | +1.9 pp | 2.43 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.4% | 81.1% | +9.4 pp | 1.11 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 9.6% | 18.9% | −9.4 pp | 10.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.7% | 59.9% | +11.8 pp | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 28.3% | 40.1% | −11.8 pp | 3.53 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Voluntari sample
- 10 matches
- FCSB sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.