Monday, 12/10/2026 at 20:00
Full timeFC Universitatea Cluj 3:4 FC Rapid București
FC Universitatea Cluj were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. FC Rapid București won 4–3.
The model against the result
- FC Universitatea Cluj
- 42%
- Draw
- 28%
- FC Rapid București
- 29% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
2.08 xG created 1.61 xGA
- W 2.30 created, 2.47 conceded against UTA Arad
- L 1.94 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- L 3.33 created, 2.02 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- L 0.66 created, 2.05 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- W 1.78 created, 0.20 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- W 2.49 created, 1.43 conceded against FC Voluntari
1.77 xG created 1.17 xGA
- D 1.05 created, 0.84 conceded against UTA Arad
- L 1.72 created, 1.42 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- W 1.31 created, 1.26 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- D 1.39 created, 1.95 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- W 3.19 created, 0.48 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- W 1.93 created, 1.09 conceded against FC Voluntari
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged5 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals | 2.50 | +23.7% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | +13.4% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | +11.5% | Won |
| FC Universitatea Cluj to win | 2.60 | +10.2% | Lost |
| FC Universitatea Cluj to score | 1.33 | +10.0% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +7.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Universitatea Cluj | 42.4% | 34.5% | +7.8 pp | 2.36 |
| Draw | 28.5% | 27.6% | +0.9 pp | 3.51 |
| FC Rapid București | 29.1% | 37.8% | −8.7 pp | 3.43 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Universitatea Cluj to score | 82.5% | 70.9% | +11.6 pp | 1.21 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj not to score | 17.5% | 29.1% | −11.6 pp | 5.72 |
| FC Rapid București to score | 76.3% | 73.1% | +3.2 pp | 1.31 |
| FC Rapid București not to score | 23.7% | 26.9% | −3.2 pp | 4.22 |
| Both teams to score | 64.6% | 53.7% | +10.9 pp | 1.55 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.4% | 46.3% | −10.9 pp | 2.82 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals | 49.5% | 37.5% | +12.0 pp | 2.02 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj at most 1 goal | 50.5% | 62.5% | −12.0 pp | 1.98 |
| FC Rapid București 2+ goals | 39.3% | 39.2% | +0.1 pp | 2.54 |
| FC Rapid București at most 1 goal | 60.7% | 60.8% | −0.1 pp | 1.65 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | 73.1% | +10.0 pp | 1.20 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.8% | 26.9% | −10.0 pp | 5.94 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | 48.7% | +9.5 pp | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 51.3% | −9.5 pp | 2.39 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Universitatea Cluj sample
- 20 matches
- FC Rapid București sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.