SC Oțelul Galați 1:1 FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Friday, 16/10/2026 at 17:00

Full time

Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

SC Oțelul Galați Home 4.19 xG

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc Away 1.65 xG

11 SC Oțelul Galați had the better chances, but it finished level

SC Oțelul Galați were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 59%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was SC Oțelul Galați's attack: 4.19 xG against 1.90 projected (+2.29). FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc produced 1.65 xG against 0.97 projected (+0.68).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

SC Oțelul Galați: 59%
Draw: 26% What happened
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc: 16%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

SC Oțelul Galați 1.90 4.19 +2.29

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc 0.97 1.65 +0.68

SC Oțelul Galați produced 2.29 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

SC Oțelul Galați FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

Shots: 29; 14
On target: 12; 6
Inside the box: 17; 8
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

SC Oțelul Galați

1.12 xG created 2.12 xGA

W 0.86 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
D 2.65 created, 1.96 conceded against FC Voluntari
L 0.48 created, 3.19 conceded against FC Rapid București
L 0.20 created, 1.78 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
L 2.10 created, 2.59 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
L 0.42 created, 2.02 conceded against FCSB

FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc

0.83 xG created 2.40 xGA

L 1.01 created, 1.81 conceded against FC Botoșani
L 0.96 created, 2.02 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
L 1.16 created, 2.86 conceded against UTA Arad
L 0.78 created, 2.25 conceded against FC Dinamo București
L 0.57 created, 2.15 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
L 0.47 created, 3.33 conceded against Universitatea Craiova

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

SC Oțelul Galați: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 qualified edges flagged4 won3 lost

Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on SC Oțelul Galați against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	2.00	+16.9%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	2.05	+15.7%	Lost
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc 2+ goals	4.33	+8.9%	Lost
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc to score	1.67	+8.9%	Won
SC Oțelul Galați 2+ goals	1.83	+7.6%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.30	+6.6%	Won
SC Oțelul Galați to score	1.18	+3.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SC Oțelul Galați	58.6%	55.1%	+3.5 pp	1.71
Draw	25.5%	26.2%	−0.7 pp	3.92
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc	15.9%	18.7%	−2.9 pp	6.30

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
SC Oțelul Galați to score	87.2%	79.2%	+8.0 pp	1.15
SC Oțelul Galați not to score	12.8%	20.8%	−8.0 pp	7.81
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc to score	65.3%	55.7%	+9.6 pp	1.53
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc not to score	34.7%	44.3%	−9.6 pp	2.88
Both teams to score	58.4%	46.3%	+12.1 pp	1.71
Both teams not to score	41.6%	53.7%	−12.1 pp	2.41
SC Oțelul Galați 2+ goals	58.7%	50.0%	+8.7 pp	1.70
SC Oțelul Galați at most 1 goal	41.3%	50.0%	−8.7 pp	2.42
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc 2+ goals	25.1%	21.7%	+3.5 pp	3.98
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc at most 1 goal	74.9%	78.3%	−3.5 pp	1.34
Over 1.5 goals	82.0%	72.3%	+9.7 pp	1.22
Under 1.5 goals	18.0%	27.7%	−9.7 pp	5.56
Over 2.5 goals	56.4%	46.1%	+10.4 pp	1.77
Under 2.5 goals	43.6%	53.9%	−10.4 pp	2.30

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
SC Oțelul Galați sample: 20 matches
FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.