Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 15:00
20d 13h to kick-offSepsi OSK – Universitatea Craiova
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Sepsi OSK
- 22%
- Draw
- 27%
- Universitatea Craiova
- 51%
| Sepsi OSK | Draw | Universitatea Craiova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.60 | 3.68 | 1.96 |
- Total goals
- 2.92
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Universitatea Craiova
51% Universitatea Craiova to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 12th
- Universitatea Craiova attack v Sepsi OSK defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 14th
- Universitatea Craiova defence v Sepsi OSK attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.28 vs -0.56
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.14 – 1.77
- Sepsi OSK v Universitatea Craiova
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sepsi OSK | Universitatea Craiova |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.19 · 14th | (better) 2.45 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 1.73 · 10th | (better) 1.11 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.54 · 13th | (better) +1.34 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.10 · 12th | (better) 2.03 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.56 | (better) +1.29 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Universitatea Craiova clean sheet
- 29%
- Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
- 55%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.4%
- 1:2
- 11.3%
- 0:2
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sepsi OSK sample
- 10 matches
- Universitatea Craiova sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sepsi OSK
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Universitatea Craiova
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.