Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 15:00
31d 23h to kick-offUTA Arad – FC Petrolul Ploieşti
Model updated 6 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- UTA Arad
- 64%
- Draw
- 22%
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- 15%
| UTA Arad | Draw | FC Petrolul Ploieşti | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.57 | 4.64 | 6.75 |
- Total goals
- 3.45
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans UTA Arad
64% UTA Arad to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 15th
- UTA Arad attack v FC Petrolul Ploieşti defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 12th
- UTA Arad defence v FC Petrolul Ploieşti attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.54 vs -0.86
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.31 – 1.14
- UTA Arad v FC Petrolul Ploieşti
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | UTA Arad | FC Petrolul Ploieşti |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.87 · 7th | 1.34 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.24 · 5th | 2.38 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.63 · 4th | -1.04 · 14th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.78 · 4th | 1.06 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.54 | -0.86 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- UTA Arad clean sheet
- 29%
- UTA Arad 2+ goals
- 70%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:1
- 9.8%
- 3:1
- 8.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- UTA Arad sample
- 20 matches
- FC Petrolul Ploieşti sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · UTA Arad
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 15:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.