Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 17:00
31d 23h to kick-offFK Čukarički – FK Radnički Niš
Model updated 6 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Čukarički
- 42%
- Draw
- 29%
- FK Radnički Niš
- 30%
| FK Čukarički | Draw | FK Radnički Niš | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.40 | 3.50 | 3.36 |
- Total goals
- 2.94
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Čukarički
42% FK Čukarički to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 8th
- FK Čukarički attack v FK Radnički Niš defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 8th
- FK Čukarički defence v FK Radnički Niš attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.30 vs -0.39
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.59 – 1.34
- FK Čukarički v FK Radnički Niš
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Čukarički | FK Radnički Niš |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.50 · 9th | 1.48 · 10th |
| xGA / match | 1.67 · 9th | (better) 1.42 · 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.16 · 10th | (better) +0.06 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 1.32 · 10th | (better) 1.51 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.31 | -0.39 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- FK Čukarički clean sheet
- 23%
- FK Čukarički 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.9%
- 2:1
- 10.4%
- 1:2
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Čukarički sample
- 20 matches
- FK Radnički Niš sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Čukarički
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Radnički Niš
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.