Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 17:00
13d 15h to kick-offFK Mačva Šabac – OFK Beograd
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Mačva Šabac
- 28%
- Draw
- 29%
- OFK Beograd
- 43%
| FK Mačva Šabac | Draw | OFK Beograd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.52 | 3.45 | 2.35 |
- Total goals
- 2.85
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
One of these teams has only 8 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans OFK Beograd
43% OFK Beograd to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 13th
- OFK Beograd attack v FK Mačva Šabac defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 13th
- OFK Beograd defence v FK Mačva Šabac attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.62 vs -1.53
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.28 – 1.57
- FK Mačva Šabac v OFK Beograd
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 8 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Mačva Šabac | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.80 · 13th | (better) 1.29 · 11th |
| xGA / match | 2.46 · 13th | (better) 2.09 · 11th |
| xGD / match | -1.66 · 13th | (better) -0.80 · 11th |
| xPts / match | 0.68 · 13th | (better) 0.86 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.53 | (better) -0.62 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- OFK Beograd clean sheet
- 25%
- OFK Beograd 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.3%
- 1:2
- 10.6%
- 2:1
- 8.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Mačva Šabac sample
- 8 matches
- OFK Beograd sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Mačva Šabac
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · OFK Beograd
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- FK Mačva Šabac has only 8 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.