Wednesday, 28/10/2026 at 15:00
Full timeFK Radnički 1923 1:2 FK Železničar Pančevo
FK Radnički 1923 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. FK Železničar Pančevo won 2–1.
The model against the result
- FK Radnički 1923
- 42%
- Draw
- 29%
- FK Železničar Pančevo
- 29% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
2.01 xG created 1.33 xGA
- D 3.02 created, 0.22 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- W 2.49 created, 0.49 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
- W 2.18 created, 1.95 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 1.20 created, 2.42 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- L 0.87 created, 2.14 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- W 2.28 created, 0.76 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
2.31 xG created 0.75 xGA
- L 0.66 created, 1.08 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
- W 4.63 created, 0.11 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- W 2.89 created, 0.53 conceded against FK Čukarički
- W 3.42 created, 0.96 conceded against FK Zemun
- W 1.27 created, 0.80 conceded against FK Partizan
- W 0.99 created, 1.03 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged5 won2 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | +9.0% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +3.6% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +2.4% | Won |
| FK Radnički 1923 to score | 1.25 | +2.1% | Won |
| Draw | 3.50 | +1.7% | Lost |
| FK Železničar Pančevo to score | 1.33 | +0.4% | Won |
| FK Radnički 1923 2+ goals | 2.10 | +0.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnički 1923 | 41.9% | 42.3% | −0.4 pp | 2.39 |
| Draw | 29.1% | 26.6% | +2.4 pp | 3.44 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo | 29.0% | 31.0% | −2.0 pp | 3.44 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnički 1923 to score | 81.7% | 75.0% | +6.7 pp | 1.22 |
| FK Radnički 1923 not to score | 18.3% | 25.0% | −6.7 pp | 5.46 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo to score | 75.3% | 70.9% | +4.4 pp | 1.33 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo not to score | 24.7% | 29.1% | −4.4 pp | 4.05 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | 53.7% | +9.5 pp | 1.58 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.9% | 46.3% | −9.5 pp | 2.71 |
| FK Radnički 1923 2+ goals | 47.8% | 44.3% | +3.5 pp | 2.09 |
| FK Radnički 1923 at most 1 goal | 52.2% | 55.7% | −3.5 pp | 1.91 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals | 37.9% | 35.5% | +2.4 pp | 2.64 |
| FK Železničar Pančevo at most 1 goal | 62.1% | 64.5% | −2.4 pp | 1.61 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | 75.0% | +6.9 pp | 1.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.1% | 25.0% | −6.9 pp | 5.52 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | 51.3% | +4.7 pp | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 48.7% | −4.7 pp | 2.27 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Radnički 1923 sample
- 20 matches
- FK Železničar Pančevo sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.