Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 18:00
33d 19h to kick-offFC Luzern – Young Boys
Model updated 4 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Luzern
- 33%
- Draw
- 25%
- Young Boys
- 42%
| FC Luzern | Draw | Young Boys | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.07 | 4.00 | 2.36 |
- Total goals
- 3.68
- Over 2.5 goals
- 73%
- Both teams to score
- 76%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Young Boys
42% Young Boys to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 9th
- Young Boys attack v FC Luzern defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 3rd
- Young Boys defence v FC Luzern attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.77 vs +0.46
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.72 – 1.95
- FC Luzern v Young Boys
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Luzern | Young Boys |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.95 · 4th | (better) 2.28 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 2.02 · 10th | (better) 1.41 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.08 · 5th | (better) +0.87 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.36 · 5th | (better) 1.90 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.46 | (better) +0.77 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 28% of the model's distribution.
- Young Boys clean sheet
- 15%
- Young Boys 2+ goals
- 60%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 27%
- Both teams to score: no
- 24%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 9.8%
- 1:2
- 9.2%
- 2:2
- 8.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Luzern sample
- 20 matches
- Young Boys sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Luzern
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Young Boys
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.