Monday, 02/11/2026 at 12:30
Full timeFC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 0:2 Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. They won 2–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
The model against the result
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- 17%
- Draw
- 25%
- Dynamo Kyiv
- 58% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 21
- 8
- On target
- 4
- 3
- Inside the box
- 5
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.24
Recent form
0.96 xG created 2.10 xGA
- D 0.64 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- L 1.84 created, 1.01 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
- D 0.83 created, 2.47 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
- L 0.44 created, 2.12 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
- L 0.59 created, 3.80 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- D 1.42 created, 1.01 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
1.35 xG created 0.99 xGA
- D 1.76 created, 0.49 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- W 1.05 created, 1.04 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- W 1.01 created, 0.68 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
- W 0.87 created, 0.88 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- L 1.28 created, 1.38 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
- W 2.15 created, 1.44 conceded against Kudrivka
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged0 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Kyiv at most 1 goal | 3.00 | +16.0% | Lost |
| FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih to win | 6.50 | +12.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.50 | +11.8% | Lost |
| FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 2+ goals | 3.75 | +11.4% | Lost |
| FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih to score | 1.57 | +8.7% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | +8.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih | 17.3% | 13.9% | +3.4 pp | 5.78 |
| Draw | 24.8% | 20.0% | +4.8 pp | 4.03 |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 57.9% | 66.1% | −8.2 pp | 1.73 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih to score | 69.2% | 58.9% | +10.3 pp | 1.44 |
| FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih not to score | 30.8% | 41.1% | −10.3 pp | 3.25 |
| Dynamo Kyiv to score | 88.4% | 87.5% | +0.9 pp | 1.13 |
| Dynamo Kyiv not to score | 11.6% | 12.5% | −0.9 pp | 8.66 |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% | 53.7% | +8.9 pp | 1.60 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.4% | 46.3% | −8.9 pp | 2.67 |
| FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 2+ goals | 29.7% | 25.0% | +4.7 pp | 3.37 |
| FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih at most 1 goal | 70.3% | 75.0% | −4.7 pp | 1.42 |
| Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals | 61.3% | 68.7% | −7.4 pp | 1.63 |
| Dynamo Kyiv at most 1 goal | 38.7% | 31.3% | +7.4 pp | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.9% | 81.4% | +3.5 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.1% | 18.6% | −3.5 pp | 6.63 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.3% | 62.5% | −1.2 pp | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.7% | 37.5% | +1.2 pp | 2.58 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih sample
- 20 matches
- Dynamo Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.