Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 12:00
Kicked off · odds lockedKolos Kovalivka – Polissya Zhytomyr
- Kolos Kovalivka
- 16%
- Mkt 17% Market 17%
- Fair 6.18 Fair odds 6.18
- Draw
- 28%
- Mkt 22% Market 22%
- Fair 3.57 Fair odds 3.57
- Polissya Zhytomyr
- 56%
- Mkt 61% Market 61%
- Fair 1.79 Fair odds 1.79
No qualified edge
The largest edge is Draw at +11.9%, and the Betting section's rule stops it: Kicked off. How this is decided →
- Kolos Kovalivka 20/20
- Polissya Zhytomyr 20/20
- Model updated 1 November, 09:30
- Top odds updated 1 November, 09:00
Where the model disagrees with the market
Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices, locked at kick-off.
Match result
Model against the market
Draw
- Model
- 28.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 22.4%
- Probability gap
- +5.6 pp
- Edge
- +11.9%
- Fair odds
- 3.57
- Market odds
- 4.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.75
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.6%
Kolos Kovalivka to win
- Model
- 16.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 17.1%
- Probability gap
- −0.9 pp
- Edge
- −15.0%
- Fair odds
- 6.18
- Market odds
- 5.25 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 6.48
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.6%
Polissya Zhytomyr to win
- Model
- 55.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 60.5%
- Probability gap
- −4.7 pp
- Edge
- −17.4%
- Fair odds
- 1.79
- Market odds
- 1.48 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.88
- Bookmaker margin
- 11.6%
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →
Recent form
- D 2.47 created, 0.83 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- L 1.13 created, 2.39 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- W 1.96 created, 1.11 conceded against Kudrivka
- W 1.33 created, 1.46 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- L 0.37 created, 2.37 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- W 1.26 created, 0.58 conceded against Veres Rivne
- W 5.21 created, 1.06 conceded against Kudrivka
- W 1.55 created, 0.23 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- W 2.12 created, 0.44 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- D 2.64 created, 0.72 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- W 1.38 created, 1.28 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
- W 2.50 created, 0.09 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.52
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- Polissya Zhytomyr 2+ goals
- 51%
- Polissya Zhytomyr clean sheet
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 14.5%
- 0:2
- 11.4%
- 1:2
- 11.4%
Why the model favours Polissya Zhytomyr
Attack, defence and recent form all point to Polissya Zhytomyr.
- Attack
- Favours Polissya Zhytomyr
- 1st vs 9th
- Polissya Zhytomyr attack v Kolos Kovalivka defence
- Defence
- Favours Polissya Zhytomyr
- 3rd vs 12th
- Polissya Zhytomyr defence v Kolos Kovalivka attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Polissya Zhytomyr
- +1.93 vs -0.04
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Kolos Kovalivka | Polissya Zhytomyr |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.16 · 11th | (better) 2.10 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.45 · 8th | (better) 0.71 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.29 · 9th | (better) +1.39 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.23 · 9th | (better) 2.24 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.04 | (better) +1.93 |
Head to head
Kolos Kovalivka 1 Draws 0 Polissya Zhytomyr 1
Got a different price?
Type your bookmaker's odds for any market and see their edge against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kolos Kovalivka sample
- 20 matches
- Polissya Zhytomyr sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Kolos Kovalivka
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Polissya Zhytomyr
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 09:30
- Odds updated
- 5 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.