Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 15:00
6d 14h to kick-offObolon Kyiv – FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Obolon Kyiv
- 31%
- Draw
- 31%
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- 37%
| Obolon Kyiv | Draw | FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.19 | 3.21 | 2.67 |
- Total goals
- 2.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 2 outcomes.
-
Obolon Kyiv
- Model
- 31.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 32.3%
- Probability gap
- −0.9 pp
- Edge
- −15.3%
- Fair odds
- 3.19
- Market odds
- 2.70 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.35
- Bookmaker margin
- 14.8%
-
Draw
- Model
- 31.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 29.0%
- Probability gap
- +2.1 pp
- Edge
- −6.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.21
- Market odds
- 3.00 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.37
- Bookmaker margin
- 14.8%
-
FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- Model
- 37.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 38.7%
- Probability gap
- −1.2 pp
- Edge
- −15.7%
- Fair odds
- 2.67
- Market odds
- 2.25 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.80
- Bookmaker margin
- 14.8%
Outcomes with value
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Match result
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
37% FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 9th
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih attack v Obolon Kyiv defence
- Defence
- 14th vs 16th
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih defence v Obolon Kyiv attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.76 vs -1.34
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.23 – 1.35
- Obolon Kyiv v FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Obolon Kyiv | FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.60 · 15th from 4 matches | (better) 1.36 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.79 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 2.32 · 14th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -2.19 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) -0.96 · 13th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.48 · 16th from 4 matches | (better) 0.83 · 13th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.34 | (better) -0.76 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih clean sheet
- 26%
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 1:2
- 9.9%
- 2:1
- 8.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Obolon Kyiv sample
- 20 matches
- FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Obolon Kyiv
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.