Monday, 02/11/2026 at 12:00
Full timeZoria Luhansk 1:0 FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
Zoria Luhansk were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Zoria Luhansk's attack: 2.13 xG against 1.41 projected (+0.72). FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi produced 0.57 xG against 1.26 projected (−0.69).
The model against the result
- Zoria Luhansk
- 39% What happened
- Draw
- 31%
- FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- 31%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Zoria Luhansk produced 0.72 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 11
- On target
- 7
- 4
- Inside the box
- 7
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.05
Recent form
0.94 xG created 1.83 xGA
- L 0.52 created, 2.56 conceded against Metalist 1925
- D 1.08 created, 0.87 conceded against Veres Rivne
- D 0.70 created, 2.31 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- L 0.68 created, 1.01 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
- W 2.20 created, 0.66 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- D 0.48 created, 3.57 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
1.29 xG created 1.86 xGA
- D 2.19 created, 2.18 conceded against Bukovyna Chernivtsi
- L 1.04 created, 1.05 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
- L 1.36 created, 1.46 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- L 1.46 created, 1.33 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
- D 0.54 created, 4.35 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- L 1.13 created, 0.78 conceded against Metalist 1925
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 qualified edges flagged1 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | +2.2% | Won |
| Draw | 3.30 | +0.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoria Luhansk | 38.5% | 46.0% | −7.4 pp | 2.60 |
| Draw | 30.5% | 26.6% | +3.9 pp | 3.28 |
| FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi | 30.9% | 27.4% | +3.5 pp | 3.23 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 58.9% | +1.4 pp | 1.66 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.7% | 41.1% | −1.4 pp | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | 76.9% | +2.1 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.0% | 23.1% | −2.1 pp | 4.76 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 56.0% | −4.6 pp | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 44.0% | +4.6 pp | 2.06 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Zoria Luhansk sample
- 20 matches
- FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.