xgEdge

Expected goals

KuPS expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Veikkausliiga · after 21 matches · updated 1 Oct

KuPS's attacking and defensive expected goals in Veikkausliiga 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

KuPS xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.96 xG per match
#1/12
Attack (xG per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 KuPS 1.96
#2 FC Lahti 1.80
#3 Inter Turku 1.78
#4 HJK 1.77
#5 Ilves 1.72
#6 SJK 1.71
#7 IF Gnistan 1.61
#8 VPS 1.56
#9 TPS 1.50
#10 FF Jaro 1.21
#11 AC Oulu 1.20
#12 IFK Mariehamn 1.10
League avg
1.57
Total
41.20 21 matches
Defence
1.26 xGA per match
#2/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Inter Turku 0.93
#2 KuPS 1.26
#3 HJK 1.32
#4 FC Lahti 1.42
#5 IF Gnistan 1.43
#6 VPS 1.44
#7 AC Oulu 1.58
#8 TPS 1.58
#9 SJK 1.67
#10 FF Jaro 1.71
#11 Ilves 1.94
#12 IFK Mariehamn 2.50
League avg
1.57
Total
26.44 21 matches
xG difference
+0.70 xGD per match
#2/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Inter Turku +0.86
#2 KuPS +0.70
#3 HJK +0.45
#4 FC Lahti +0.38
#5 IF Gnistan +0.18
#6 VPS +0.12
#7 SJK +0.04
#8 TPS -0.08
#9 Ilves -0.21
#10 AC Oulu -0.37
#11 FF Jaro -0.50
#12 IFK Mariehamn -1.41
League avg
0.00
Total
+14.76 21 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.78 xPts per match
#2/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Inter Turku 1.96
#2 KuPS 1.78
#3 HJK 1.74
#4 FC Lahti 1.51
#5 IF Gnistan 1.43
#6 SJK 1.42
#7 VPS 1.36
#8 Ilves 1.35
#9 TPS 1.32
#10 AC Oulu 1.13
#11 FF Jaro 1.05
#12 IFK Mariehamn 0.69
League avg
1.39
Total
37.28 vs 48 actual pts

Expected goals here are summed over 21 of 25 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

KuPS's underlying numbers are among the best in Veikkausliiga. They rank #2 for xG difference at +0.70 per match, driven by the league's highest shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 38 goals are 3.20 below 41.20 xG, while 44 points are 6.72 above 37.28 xPts — both over the 21 matches with xG.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
38 41.20 -3.20 scored 3.20 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
19 26.44 -7.44 conceded 7.44 fewer than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
44 37.28 +6.72 6.72 points above xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

KuPS are 3.20 goals below their xG after 21 matches. The gap was widest at -4.55, against HJK on Sun 13/09.

Goals
38
xG
41.20
Gap
-3.20
Sat 04/04 Sat 11/04 Sat 18/04 Wed 22/04 Sun 26/04 Fri 08/05 Sat 16/05 Wed 20/05 Sat 30/05 Sat 13/06 Wed 17/06 Tue 23/06 Sat 27/06 Sat 18/07 Sat 25/07 Sat 01/08 Sun 09/08 Sun 16/08 Sun 23/08 Sun 13/09 Sat 19/09 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +1.65 +0.44 +0.66 +2.07 +0.18 -1.18 -2.73 -1.19 -0.77 -2.06 -1.42 -1.45 -2.37 -3.68 -3.10 -3.27 -3.96 -3.13 -3.10 -4.55 -3.20 +1.65 -1.21 +0.22 +1.41 -1.89 -1.36 -1.55 +1.54 +0.42 -1.29 +0.64 -0.03 -0.92 -1.31 +0.58 -0.17 -0.69 +0.83 +0.03 -1.45 +1.35 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
KuPS: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 04/04 Ilves 3 1.35 +1.65 +1.65
Sat 11/04 IF Gnistan 1 2.21 -1.21 +0.44
Sat 18/04 FF Jaro 1 0.78 +0.22 +0.66
Wed 22/04 AC Oulu 3 1.59 +1.41 +2.07
Sun 26/04 HJK 1 2.89 -1.89 +0.18
Fri 08/05 SJK 0 1.36 -1.36 -1.18
Sat 16/05 IFK Mariehamn 1 2.55 -1.55 -2.73
Wed 20/05 FF Jaro 3 1.46 +1.54 -1.19
Sat 30/05 Inter Turku 1 0.58 +0.42 -0.77
Sat 13/06 VPS 1 2.29 -1.29 -2.06
Wed 17/06 TPS 2 1.36 +0.64 -1.42
Tue 23/06 Ilves 4 4.03 -0.03 -1.45
Sat 27/06 HJK 4 4.92 -0.92 -2.37
Sat 18/07 SJK 2 3.31 -1.31 -3.68
Sat 25/07 VPS 3 2.42 +0.58 -3.10
Sat 01/08 IF Gnistan 1 1.17 -0.17 -3.27
Sun 09/08 TPS 1 1.69 -0.69 -3.96
Sun 16/08 FC Lahti 2 1.17 +0.83 -3.13
Sun 23/08 IFK Mariehamn 2 1.97 +0.03 -3.10
Sun 13/09 HJK 0 1.45 -1.45 -4.55
Sat 19/09 VPS 2 0.65 +1.35 -3.20

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

KuPS xG trend

Current form -0.11 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 16 of 21 matches. The worst was against IF Gnistan on Sat 01/08 (-1.10).

npxG · last 6
1.35
npxGA · last 6
1.46
-2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 -0.02 Sat 04/04 +1.27 Sat 11/04 +0.38 Sat 18/04 +0.48 Wed 22/04 +2.11 Sun 26/04 +0.66 Fri 08/05 +1.90 Sat 16/05 +1.17 Wed 20/05 -0.82 Sat 30/05 +0.32 Sat 13/06 +0.71 Wed 17/06 +2.39 Tue 23/06 +3.60 Sat 27/06 +2.51 Sat 18/07 +1.34 Sat 25/07 -1.10 Sat 01/08 -0.32 Sun 09/08 +0.46 Sun 16/08 +0.50 Sun 23/08 +0.21 Sun 13/09 -0.40 Sat 19/09 +0.83 season avg
KuPS: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 04/04 Ilves 1.35 1.37 -0.02 -0.02
Sat 11/04 IF Gnistan 2.21 0.94 +1.27 +0.63
Sat 18/04 FF Jaro 0.78 0.40 +0.38 +0.54
Wed 22/04 AC Oulu 1.59 1.11 +0.48 +0.53
Sun 26/04 HJK 2.89 0.78 +2.11 +0.84
Fri 08/05 SJK 1.58 0.92 +0.66 +0.81
Sat 16/05 IFK Mariehamn 2.55 0.65 +1.90 +0.97
Wed 20/05 FF Jaro 1.47 0.30 +1.17 +0.99
Sat 30/05 Inter Turku 0.52 1.34 -0.82 +0.79
Sat 13/06 VPS 2.29 1.97 +0.32 +0.74
Wed 17/06 TPS 1.46 0.75 +0.71 +0.74
Tue 23/06 Ilves 4.03 1.64 +2.39 +0.88
Sat 27/06 HJK 4.92 1.32 +3.60 +1.09
Sat 18/07 SJK 3.31 0.80 +2.51 +1.19
Sat 25/07 VPS 2.42 1.08 +1.34 +1.20
Sat 01/08 IF Gnistan 1.17 2.27 -1.10 +1.06
Sun 09/08 TPS 1.69 2.01 -0.32 +0.98
Sun 16/08 FC Lahti 1.17 0.71 +0.46 +0.95
Sun 23/08 IFK Mariehamn 1.97 1.47 +0.50 +0.92
Sun 13/09 HJK 1.45 1.24 +0.21 +0.89
Sat 19/09 VPS 0.65 1.05 -0.40 +0.83

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.97 npxG and 1.15 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 8 hardest of 12 in Veikkausliiga
−0.02 xG vs league average
Over 25 league matches
Last 5
number 7 hardest of 12 in Veikkausliiga
+0.04 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.02 xG vs league average · over 25 matches · number 8 hardest of 12

  1. VPS Away +0.10
  2. HJK Home +0.27
  3. IF Gnistan Away +0.06
  4. Inter Turku Away +0.53
  5. IFK Mariehamn Home −0.75
  6. FC Lahti Away +0.22
  7. TPS Home −0.08
  8. IF Gnistan Away +0.06
  9. VPS Home +0.10
  10. SJK Away +0.02
  11. HJK Away +0.27
  12. Ilves Home −0.22
  13. TPS Away −0.08
  14. VPS Away +0.10
  15. Inter Turku Home +0.53
  16. FC Lahti Home +0.22
  17. FF Jaro Home −0.38
  18. IFK Mariehamn Away −0.75
  19. SJK Home +0.02
  20. AC Oulu Away −0.28
  21. HJK Home +0.27
  22. AC Oulu Home −0.28
  23. FF Jaro Away −0.38
  24. IF Gnistan Home +0.06
  25. Ilves Away −0.22

Last 5

+0.04 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 7 hardest of 12

  1. VPS Away +0.10
  2. HJK Home +0.27
  3. IF Gnistan Away +0.06
  4. Inter Turku Away +0.53
  5. IFK Mariehamn Home −0.75

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

KuPS shots and chance quality

High volume, average quality. KuPS take 15.2 shots a match (league 12.0) at 0.13 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #1 in Veikkausliiga for volume and #3 for quality. 61% of their shots come from inside the box (league 61%).

Attack

Shot volume
15.2 shots per match
#1/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 KuPS 15.2
#2 FC Lahti 13.3
#3 Inter Turku 13.1
#4 TPS 13.0
#5 HJK 12.6
#6 SJK 12.4
#7 IF Gnistan 11.8
#8 FF Jaro 11.6
#9 Ilves 11.5
#10 VPS 11.0
#11 AC Oulu 10.2
#12 IFK Mariehamn 8.9
League avg
12.0
Total
319 shots from 21 matches
Chance quality
0.13 npxG per shot
#3/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 SJK 0.14
#2 HJK 0.14
#3 KuPS 0.13
#4 VPS 0.13
#5 Ilves 0.13
#6 Inter Turku 0.13
#7 IF Gnistan 0.13
#8 FC Lahti 0.13
#9 IFK Mariehamn 0.11
#10 TPS 0.11
#11 AC Oulu 0.10
#12 FF Jaro 0.09
League avg
0.12
Total
41.47 npxG from 319 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
9.7 shots per match
#2/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Inter Turku 8.5
#2 KuPS 9.7
#3 FC Lahti 9.8
#4 VPS 11.4
#5 AC Oulu 11.4
#6 SJK 11.7
#7 HJK 12.0
#8 TPS 12.6
#9 IF Gnistan 12.9
#10 FF Jaro 13.6
#11 Ilves 13.9
#12 IFK Mariehamn 16.3
League avg
12.0
Total
204 shots allowed from 21 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.12 npxGA per shot
#6/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Veikkausliiga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Inter Turku 0.10
#2 IF Gnistan 0.10
#3 HJK 0.11
#4 TPS 0.11
#5 VPS 0.11
#6 KuPS 0.12
#7 FF Jaro 0.12
#8 AC Oulu 0.13
#9 Ilves 0.13
#10 FC Lahti 0.13
#11 SJK 0.14
#12 IFK Mariehamn 0.15
League avg
0.12
Total
24.12 npxGA from 204 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

61% inside the box

League avg 61%

From 194 of 319 shots over 21 matches

Shots allowed, location

60% allowed inside the box

League avg 61%

From 122 of 204 shots allowed over 21 matches

How the shot figures are made →

KuPS home and away xG

KuPS per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 12 11 with xG 13 10 with xG
xG / match 1.97 1.96
xGA / match 1.31 1.21
xGD / match +0.66 +0.75
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.81 1.74

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every KuPS match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
25 21 with xG
xG / match
1.96
xGA / match
1.26
xGD / match
+0.70
Points
48 of 75
  1. Sat 19/09 VPS A xG 0.65 xGA 1.05 xGD -0.40
  2. Sun 13/09 HJK H xG 1.45 xGA 1.24 xGD +0.21
  3. Tue 08/09 IF Gnistan A
  4. Mon 31/08 Inter Turku A
  5. Sun 23/08 IFK Mariehamn H xG 1.97 xGA 1.47 xGD +0.50
  6. Sun 16/08 FC Lahti A xG 1.17 xGA 0.71 xGD +0.46
  7. Sun 09/08 TPS H xG 1.69 xGA 2.01 xGD -0.32
  8. Sat 01/08 IF Gnistan A Against the chances xG 1.17 xGA 2.27 xGD -1.10
  9. Sat 25/07 VPS H xG 2.42 xGA 1.08 xGD +1.34
  10. Sat 18/07 SJK A xG 3.31 xGA 0.80 xGD +2.51
  11. Sat 27/06 HJK A Best underlying xG 4.92 xGA 1.32 xGD +3.60
  12. Tue 23/06 Ilves H xG 4.03 xGA 2.40 P xGD +1.63
  13. Wed 17/06 TPS A xG 1.36 xGA 0.75 xGD +0.61
  14. Sat 13/06 VPS A xG 2.29 xGA 1.97 xGD +0.32
  15. Sat 30/05 Inter Turku H xG 0.58 xGA 1.38 xGD -0.80
  16. Sat 23/05 FC Lahti H
  17. Wed 20/05 FF Jaro H xG 1.46 xGA 0.30 xGD +1.16
  18. Sat 16/05 IFK Mariehamn A xG 2.55 xGA 0.65 xGD +1.90
  19. Fri 08/05 SJK H xG 1.36 xGA 0.92 xGD +0.44
  20. Sat 02/05 AC Oulu A
  21. Sun 26/04 HJK H xG 2.89 xGA 0.78 xGD +2.11
  22. Wed 22/04 AC Oulu H xG 1.59 xGA 1.87 P xGD -0.28
  23. Sat 18/04 FF Jaro A xG 0.78 xGA 1.16 P xGD -0.38
  24. Sat 11/04 IF Gnistan H xG 2.21 xGA 0.94 xGD +1.27
  25. Sat 04/04 Ilves A xG 1.35 xGA 1.37 xGD -0.02

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.92. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

KuPS in Veikkausliiga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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