KuPS 0:0 HJK: xG & match report · Veikkausliiga

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 14:00

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Match report · Veikkausliiga

KuPS Home 1.45 xG

HJK Away 1.24 xG

00 The chances were evenly matched

KuPS were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was KuPS's attack: 1.45 xG against 1.74 projected (−0.29).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

KuPS: 45%
Draw: 27% What happened
HJK: 28%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

KuPS 1.74 1.45 -0.29

HJK 1.36 1.24 -0.12

KuPS produced 0.29 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

KuPS HJK

Shots: 13; 10
On target: 2; 2
Inside the box: 6; 8
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

KuPS

1.96 xG created 1.39 xGA

W 3.31 created, 0.80 conceded against SJK
W 2.42 created, 1.08 conceded against VPS
W 1.17 created, 2.27 conceded against IF Gnistan
D 1.69 created, 2.01 conceded against TPS
W 1.17 created, 0.71 conceded against FC Lahti
L 1.97 created, 1.47 conceded against IFK Mariehamn

HJK

1.79 xG created 0.86 xGA

L 1.92 created, 1.41 conceded against SJK
W 1.66 created, 0.22 conceded against AC Oulu
W 1.87 created, 0.91 conceded against FF Jaro
L 1.43 created, 1.40 conceded against IF Gnistan
W 2.61 created, 0.72 conceded against Ilves
W 1.22 created, 0.48 conceded against Inter Turku

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

KuPS: 4 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 opportunities flagged0 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on KuPS against HJK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	1.75	+7.7%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.62	+7.6%	Lost
KuPS 2+ goals	2.00	+7.0%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.22	+4.0%	Lost
KuPS to score	1.20	+1.6%	Lost
HJK 2+ goals	2.50	+0.6%	Lost
HJK to score	1.30	+0.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KuPS	45.0%	41.8%	+3.2 pp	2.22
Draw	27.4%	26.3%	+1.2 pp	3.65
HJK	27.6%	32.0%	−4.4 pp	3.63

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
KuPS to score	84.7%	78.3%	+6.3 pp	1.18
KuPS not to score	15.3%	21.7%	−6.3 pp	6.51
HJK to score	77.0%	72.3%	+4.6 pp	1.30
HJK not to score	23.0%	27.7%	−4.6 pp	4.34
Both teams to score	66.6%	57.7%	+9.0 pp	1.50
Both teams not to score	33.4%	42.3%	−9.0 pp	3.00
KuPS 2+ goals	53.5%	46.3%	+7.2 pp	1.87
KuPS at most 1 goal	46.5%	53.7%	−7.2 pp	2.15
HJK 2+ goals	40.2%	37.5%	+2.7 pp	2.48
HJK at most 1 goal	59.8%	62.5%	−2.7 pp	1.67
Over 1.5 goals	85.1%	76.6%	+8.5 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.9%	23.4%	−8.5 pp	6.73
Over 2.5 goals	61.6%	53.9%	+7.6 pp	1.62
Under 2.5 goals	38.4%	46.1%	−7.6 pp	2.60

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
KuPS sample: 20 matches
HJK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 4 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.