Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 17:00
31d 16h to kick-offSK Sturm Graz – Red Bull Salzburg
Model updated 8 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- SK Sturm Graz
- 36%
- Draw
- 28%
- Red Bull Salzburg
- 36%
| SK Sturm Graz | Draw | Red Bull Salzburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.80 | 3.55 | 2.77 |
- Total goals
- 3.07
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
36% Red Bull Salzburg to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 4th
- Red Bull Salzburg attack v SK Sturm Graz defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 3rd
- Red Bull Salzburg defence v SK Sturm Graz attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.30 vs +0.38
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.53 – 1.54
- SK Sturm Graz v Red Bull Salzburg
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SK Sturm Graz | Red Bull Salzburg |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.83 · 5th | (better) 2.68 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 1.29 · 4th | (better) 1.08 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | +0.53 · 4th | (better) +1.60 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.70 · 4th | (better) 2.33 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.38 | (better) +1.30 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet
- 19%
- Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.3%
- 1:2
- 9.6%
- 2:1
- 9.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Sturm Graz sample
- 20 matches
- Red Bull Salzburg sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · SK Sturm Graz
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Red Bull Salzburg
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 08/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.