xgEdge

Expected goals

1. FC Heidenheim expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Bundesliga · after 34 matches · updated 1 Oct

1. FC Heidenheim's attacking and defensive expected goals in Bundesliga 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

1. FC Heidenheim xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.40 xG per match
#10/18
Attack (xG per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 FC Bayern München 2.95
#2 RB Leipzig 1.95
#3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.89
#4 Borussia Dortmund 1.86
#5 VfB Stuttgart 1.77
#6 TSG Hoffenheim 1.64
#7 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.62
#8 1. FC Köln 1.51
#9 SC Freiburg 1.42
#10 1. FC Heidenheim 1.40
#11 VfL Wolfsburg 1.39
#12 FC Augsburg 1.36
#13 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.35
#14 1. FC Union Berlin 1.34
#15 Borussia M'gladbach 1.25
#16 SV Werder Bremen 1.21
#17 Hamburger SV 1.20
#18 FC St. Pauli 0.89
League avg
1.56
Total
47.55 34 matches
Defence
1.88 xGA per match
#18/18
Defence (xGA per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Borussia Dortmund 1.15
#2 FC Bayern München 1.21
#3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.35
#4 SC Freiburg 1.40
#5 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.46
#6 RB Leipzig 1.48
#7 TSG Hoffenheim 1.48
#8 VfB Stuttgart 1.49
#9 1. FC Union Berlin 1.53
#10 Borussia M'gladbach 1.56
#11 SV Werder Bremen 1.60
#12 1. FC Köln 1.63
#13 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.64
#14 FC St. Pauli 1.68
#15 Hamburger SV 1.78
#16 VfL Wolfsburg 1.80
#17 FC Augsburg 1.87
#18 1. FC Heidenheim 1.88
League avg
1.56
Total
63.83 34 matches
xG difference
-0.48 xGD per match
#15/18
xG difference (xGD per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 FC Bayern München +1.74
#2 Borussia Dortmund +0.71
#3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen +0.55
#4 RB Leipzig +0.47
#5 VfB Stuttgart +0.28
#6 TSG Hoffenheim +0.15
#7 SC Freiburg +0.03
#8 1. FSV Mainz 05 -0.03
#9 1. FC Köln -0.11
#10 Eintracht Frankfurt -0.11
#11 1. FC Union Berlin -0.20
#12 Borussia M'gladbach -0.31
#13 SV Werder Bremen -0.40
#14 VfL Wolfsburg -0.41
#15 1. FC Heidenheim -0.48
#16 FC Augsburg -0.51
#17 Hamburger SV -0.58
#18 FC St. Pauli -0.80
League avg
0.00
Total
-16.28 34 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.11 xPts per match
#16/18
Expected points (xPts per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 FC Bayern München 2.28
#2 Borussia Dortmund 1.78
#3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.70
#4 RB Leipzig 1.68
#5 VfB Stuttgart 1.61
#6 TSG Hoffenheim 1.51
#7 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.43
#8 SC Freiburg 1.38
#9 1. FC Union Berlin 1.36
#10 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.32
#11 1. FC Köln 1.27
#12 SV Werder Bremen 1.18
#13 VfL Wolfsburg 1.17
#14 Borussia M'gladbach 1.16
#15 FC Augsburg 1.14
#16 1. FC Heidenheim 1.11
#17 Hamburger SV 1.07
#18 FC St. Pauli 0.87
League avg
1.39
Total
37.79 vs 26 actual pts

What the xG says

1. FC Heidenheim's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Bundesliga. They rank #15 for xG difference at -0.48 per match, built on elite chance quality rather than low shot volume. Their 41 goals are 6.55 below 47.55 xG, while 26 points are 11.79 below 37.79 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 0.77 xG from penalties
41 47.55 -6.55 scored 6.55 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
72 63.83 +8.17 conceded 8.17 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
26 37.79 -11.79 11.79 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

1. FC Heidenheim are 6.55 goals below their xG after 34 matches. The gap was widest at -10.10, against SV Werder Bremen on Sat 28/02.

Goals
41
xG
47.55
Gap
-6.55
Sat 23/08 Sat 30/08 Sat 13/09 Sat 20/09 Sat 27/09 Sun 05/10 Sat 18/10 Sat 25/10 Sat 01/11 Sat 08/11 Sat 22/11 Sat 29/11 Sat 06/12 Sat 13/12 Sun 21/12 Sat 10/01 Tue 13/01 Sat 17/01 Sat 24/01 Sun 01/02 Sat 07/02 Sun 15/02 Sun 22/02 Sat 28/02 Sat 07/03 Sat 14/03 Sat 21/03 Sat 04/04 Sat 11/04 Sun 19/04 Sat 25/04 Sat 02/05 Sun 10/05 Sat 16/05 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 +1 +0.28 -0.74 -1.14 -3.12 -2.36 -2.74 -3.74 -3.85 -3.47 -3.59 -3.92 -2.51 -2.73 -4.17 -5.21 -5.14 -5.69 -5.68 -6.94 -7.20 -8.73 -9.70 -8.74 -10.10 -9.17 -9.32 -7.89 -7.03 -5.88 -6.46 -6.07 -5.66 -4.02 -6.55 +0.28 -1.02 -0.40 -1.98 +0.76 -0.38 -1.00 -0.11 +0.38 -0.12 -0.33 +1.41 -0.22 -1.44 -1.04 +0.07 -0.55 +0.01 -1.26 -0.26 -1.53 -0.97 +0.96 -1.36 +0.93 -0.15 +1.43 +0.86 +1.15 -0.58 +0.39 +0.41 +1.64 -2.53 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
1. FC Heidenheim: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 23/08 VfL Wolfsburg 1 0.72 +0.28 +0.28
Sat 30/08 RB Leipzig 0 1.02 -1.02 -0.74
Sat 13/09 Borussia Dortmund 0 0.40 -0.40 -1.14
Sat 20/09 Hamburger SV 1 2.98 -1.98 -3.12
Sat 27/09 FC Augsburg 2 1.24 +0.76 -2.36
Sun 05/10 VfB Stuttgart 0 0.38 -0.38 -2.74
Sat 18/10 SV Werder Bremen 2 3.00 -1.00 -3.74
Sat 25/10 TSG Hoffenheim 1 1.11 -0.11 -3.85
Sat 01/11 Eintracht Frankfurt 1 0.62 +0.38 -3.47
Sat 08/11 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0 0.12 -0.12 -3.59
Sat 22/11 Borussia M'gladbach 0 0.33 -0.33 -3.92
Sat 29/11 1. FC Union Berlin 2 0.59 +1.41 -2.51
Sat 06/12 SC Freiburg 2 2.22 -0.22 -2.73
Sat 13/12 FC St. Pauli 1 2.44 -1.44 -4.17
Sun 21/12 FC Bayern München 0 1.04 -1.04 -5.21
Sat 10/01 1. FC Köln 2 1.93 +0.07 -5.14
Tue 13/01 1. FSV Mainz 05 1 1.55 -0.55 -5.69
Sat 17/01 VfL Wolfsburg 1 0.99 +0.01 -5.68
Sat 24/01 RB Leipzig 0 1.26 -1.26 -6.94
Sun 01/02 Borussia Dortmund 2 2.26 -0.26 -7.20
Sat 07/02 Hamburger SV 0 1.53 -1.53 -8.73
Sun 15/02 FC Augsburg 0 0.97 -0.97 -9.70
Sun 22/02 VfB Stuttgart 3 2.04 +0.96 -8.74
Sat 28/02 SV Werder Bremen 0 1.36 -1.36 -10.10
Sat 07/03 TSG Hoffenheim 2 1.07 +0.93 -9.17
Sat 14/03 Eintracht Frankfurt 0 0.15 -0.15 -9.32
Sat 21/03 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 1.57 +1.43 -7.89
Sat 04/04 Borussia M'gladbach 2 1.14 +0.86 -7.03
Sat 11/04 1. FC Union Berlin 3 1.85 +1.15 -5.88
Sun 19/04 SC Freiburg 1 1.58 -0.58 -6.46
Sat 25/04 FC St. Pauli 2 1.61 +0.39 -6.07
Sat 02/05 FC Bayern München 3 2.59 +0.41 -5.66
Sun 10/05 1. FC Köln 3 1.36 +1.64 -4.02
Sat 16/05 1. FSV Mainz 05 0 2.53 -2.53 -6.55

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

1. FC Heidenheim xG trend

Current form +0.21 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 13 of 34 matches. The worst was against FC Bayern München on Sun 21/12 (-3.36).

npxG · last 6
1.94
npxGA · last 6
1.73
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 -0.94 Sat 23/08 -1.21 Sat 30/08 -2.36 Sat 13/09 +0.63 Sat 20/09 +1.24 Sat 27/09 -0.44 Sun 05/10 +1.66 Sat 18/10 -1.20 Sat 25/10 -0.32 Sat 01/11 -3.16 Sat 08/11 -1.01 Sat 22/11 -0.38 Sat 29/11 +1.38 Sat 06/12 +1.67 Sat 13/12 -3.36 Sun 21/12 -1.09 Sat 10/01 +0.23 Tue 13/01 -0.08 Sat 17/01 -0.43 Sat 24/01 +0.52 Sun 01/02 +0.05 Sat 07/02 -0.30 Sun 15/02 -0.12 Sun 22/02 -1.27 Sat 28/02 -1.35 Sat 07/03 -0.77 Sat 14/03 -0.83 Sat 21/03 +0.41 Sat 04/04 +1.13 Sat 11/04 +0.02 Sun 19/04 +0.48 Sat 25/04 -0.08 Sat 02/05 +0.22 Sun 10/05 -0.52 Sat 16/05 -0.34 season avg
1. FC Heidenheim: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 23/08 VfL Wolfsburg 0.72 1.66 -0.94 -0.94
Sat 30/08 RB Leipzig 1.02 2.23 -1.21 -1.07
Sat 13/09 Borussia Dortmund 0.40 2.76 -2.36 -1.50
Sat 20/09 Hamburger SV 3.00 2.37 +0.63 -0.97
Sat 27/09 FC Augsburg 1.24 0.00 +1.24 -0.53
Sun 05/10 VfB Stuttgart 0.55 0.99 -0.44 -0.51
Sat 18/10 SV Werder Bremen 3.00 1.34 +1.66 -0.20
Sat 25/10 TSG Hoffenheim 1.17 2.37 -1.20 -0.33
Sat 01/11 Eintracht Frankfurt 0.62 0.94 -0.32 -0.33
Sat 08/11 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.15 3.31 -3.16 -0.61
Sat 22/11 Borussia M'gladbach 0.40 1.41 -1.01 -0.65
Sat 29/11 1. FC Union Berlin 0.59 0.97 -0.38 -0.62
Sat 06/12 SC Freiburg 2.22 0.84 +1.38 -0.47
Sat 13/12 FC St. Pauli 2.44 0.77 +1.67 -0.32
Sun 21/12 FC Bayern München 1.16 4.52 -3.36 -0.52
Sat 10/01 1. FC Köln 1.90 2.99 -1.09 -0.56
Tue 13/01 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.62 1.39 +0.23 -0.51
Sat 17/01 VfL Wolfsburg 1.00 1.08 -0.08 -0.49
Sat 24/01 RB Leipzig 1.26 1.69 -0.43 -0.48
Sun 01/02 Borussia Dortmund 2.26 1.74 +0.52 -0.43
Sat 07/02 Hamburger SV 1.53 1.48 +0.05 -0.41
Sun 15/02 FC Augsburg 0.96 1.26 -0.30 -0.40
Sun 22/02 VfB Stuttgart 1.34 1.46 -0.12 -0.39
Sat 28/02 SV Werder Bremen 1.47 2.74 -1.27 -0.43
Sat 07/03 TSG Hoffenheim 1.07 2.42 -1.35 -0.47
Sat 14/03 Eintracht Frankfurt 0.15 0.92 -0.77 -0.48
Sat 21/03 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.79 1.62 -0.83 -0.49
Sat 04/04 Borussia M'gladbach 1.14 0.73 +0.41 -0.46
Sat 11/04 1. FC Union Berlin 2.07 0.94 +1.13 -0.40
Sun 19/04 SC Freiburg 1.64 1.62 +0.02 -0.39
Sat 25/04 FC St. Pauli 1.59 1.11 +0.48 -0.36
Sat 02/05 FC Bayern München 2.13 2.21 -0.08 -0.35
Sun 10/05 1. FC Köln 1.38 1.16 +0.22 -0.34
Sat 16/05 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.80 3.32 -0.52 -0.34

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.38 npxG and 1.72 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 4 hardest of 18 in Bundesliga
+0.01 xG vs league average
Over 34 league matches
Last 5
number 6 hardest of 17 in Bundesliga
+0.04 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.01 xG vs league average · over 34 matches · tied number 4 hardest of 18

  1. 1. FSV Mainz 05 Home +0.14
  2. 1. FC Köln Away +0.06
  3. FC Bayern München Away +0.73
  4. FC St. Pauli Home −0.49
  5. SC Freiburg Away −0.27
  6. 1. FC Union Berlin Home −0.06
  7. Borussia M'gladbach Away −0.20
  8. Bayer 04 Leverkusen Home +0.29
  9. Eintracht Frankfurt Away −0.21
  10. TSG Hoffenheim Home +0.22
  11. SV Werder Bremen Away −0.09
  12. VfB Stuttgart Home +0.28
  13. FC Augsburg Away −0.24
  14. Hamburger SV Home −0.38
  15. Borussia Dortmund Away +0.36
  16. RB Leipzig Home +0.28
  17. VfL Wolfsburg Away −0.21
  18. 1. FSV Mainz 05 Away +0.14
  19. 1. FC Köln Home +0.06
  20. FC Bayern München Home +0.73
  21. FC St. Pauli Away −0.49
  22. SC Freiburg Home −0.27
  23. 1. FC Union Berlin Away −0.06
  24. Borussia M'gladbach Home −0.20
  25. Bayer 04 Leverkusen Away +0.29
  26. Eintracht Frankfurt Home −0.21
  27. TSG Hoffenheim Away +0.22
  28. SV Werder Bremen Home −0.09
  29. VfB Stuttgart Away +0.28
  30. FC Augsburg Home −0.24
  31. Hamburger SV Away −0.38
  32. Borussia Dortmund Home +0.36
  33. RB Leipzig Away +0.28
  34. VfL Wolfsburg Home −0.21

Last 5

+0.04 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 6 hardest of 17

  1. 1. FSV Mainz 05 Home +0.14
  2. 1. FC Köln Away +0.06
  3. FC Bayern München Away +0.73
  4. FC St. Pauli Home −0.49
  5. SC Freiburg Away −0.27

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

1. FC Heidenheim shots and chance quality

Low volume, high quality. 1. FC Heidenheim take 11.4 shots a match (league 13.2) at 0.12 npxG a shot (league 0.11), #17 in Bundesliga for volume and #3 for quality. 69% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 33% of their npxG (league 25%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.4 shots per match
#17/18
Shot volume (shots per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FC Bayern München 19.2
#2 RB Leipzig 15.8
#3 VfB Stuttgart 15.3
#4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 15.1
#5 TSG Hoffenheim 14.1
#6 1. FC Köln 13.4
#7 FC Augsburg 13.2
=8 Borussia Dortmund 13.1
=8 SV Werder Bremen 13.1
#10 1. FC Union Berlin 12.5
#11 Hamburger SV 12.3
#12 SC Freiburg 12.2
#13 1. FSV Mainz 05 12.1
#14 Eintracht Frankfurt 12.0
#15 VfL Wolfsburg 11.9
#16 Borussia M'gladbach 11.6
#17 1. FC Heidenheim 11.4
#18 FC St. Pauli 10.2
League avg
13.2
Total
389 shots from 34 matches
Chance quality
0.12 npxG per shot
#3/18
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 FC Bayern München 0.14
#2 Borussia Dortmund 0.13
#3 1. FC Heidenheim 0.12
#4 RB Leipzig 0.12
#5 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.12
#6 VfL Wolfsburg 0.11
#7 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.11
#8 TSG Hoffenheim 0.11
#9 1. FC Köln 0.11
#10 SC Freiburg 0.11
#11 VfB Stuttgart 0.10
#12 1. FC Union Berlin 0.10
#13 Eintracht Frankfurt 0.10
#14 Borussia M'gladbach 0.10
#15 FC Augsburg 0.09
#16 Hamburger SV 0.09
#17 SV Werder Bremen 0.09
#18 FC St. Pauli 0.08
League avg
0.11
Total
46.78 npxG from 389 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
15.3 shots per match
#17/18
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FC Bayern München 10.5
#2 Borussia Dortmund 10.7
#3 RB Leipzig 12.1
#4 TSG Hoffenheim 12.3
#5 FC St. Pauli 12.4
=6 Eintracht Frankfurt 12.6
=6 VfB Stuttgart 12.6
#8 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 12.8
#9 1. FC Union Berlin 12.9
#10 1. FC Köln 13.6
#11 SV Werder Bremen 13.7
#12 SC Freiburg 13.8
#13 1. FSV Mainz 05 14.1
#14 Borussia M'gladbach 14.2
#15 Hamburger SV 14.6
#16 FC Augsburg 14.8
#17 1. FC Heidenheim 15.3
#18 VfL Wolfsburg 15.4
League avg
13.2
Total
519 shots allowed from 34 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#13/18
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Bundesliga, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0.09
#2 SC Freiburg 0.10
#3 VfL Wolfsburg 0.10
#4 VfB Stuttgart 0.10
#5 Borussia M'gladbach 0.10
#6 Borussia Dortmund 0.10
#7 SV Werder Bremen 0.11
#8 1. FC Union Berlin 0.11
#9 1. FC Köln 0.11
#10 Hamburger SV 0.11
#11 FC Bayern München 0.11
#12 Eintracht Frankfurt 0.11
#13 1. FC Heidenheim 0.11
#14 TSG Hoffenheim 0.11
#15 1. FSV Mainz 05 0.11
#16 RB Leipzig 0.12
#17 FC Augsburg 0.12
#18 FC St. Pauli 0.13
League avg
0.11
Total
58.36 npxGA from 519 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

69% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 269 of 389 shots over 34 matches

Shots allowed, location

67% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 346 of 519 shots allowed over 34 matches

Where the npxG comes from

67% open play · 33% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 15.4 of 46.8 npxG over 34 matches

Where the npxG allowed comes from

78% open play · 22% set pieces

League avg 25% set pieces

From 13.0 of 58.7 npxG allowed over 34 matches

How the shot figures are made →

1. FC Heidenheim home and away xG

1. FC Heidenheim per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 17 17
xG / match 1.47 1.33
xGA / match 1.99 1.76
xGD / match -0.52 -0.43
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.12 1.10

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every 1. FC Heidenheim match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
17
xG / match
1.47
xGA / match
1.99
xGD / match
-0.52
Points
17 of 51
  1. Sat 16/05 1. FSV Mainz 05 H xG 2.53 xGA 3.71 xGD -1.18
  2. Sat 25/04 FC St. Pauli H xG 1.61 xGA 1.06 xGD +0.55
  3. Sat 11/04 1. FC Union Berlin H xG 1.85 xGA 0.99 xGD +0.86
  4. Sat 21/03 Bayer 04 Leverkusen H xG 1.57 P xGA 1.62 xGD -0.05
  5. Sat 07/03 TSG Hoffenheim H xG 1.07 xGA 2.34 xGD -1.27
  6. Sun 22/02 VfB Stuttgart H xG 2.04 P xGA 2.24 P xGD -0.20
  7. Sat 07/02 Hamburger SV H xG 1.53 xGA 1.48 xGD +0.05
  8. Sat 24/01 RB Leipzig H xG 1.26 xGA 1.69 xGD -0.43
  9. Sat 10/01 1. FC Köln H xG 1.93 xGA 2.99 xGD -1.06
  10. Sun 21/12 FC Bayern München H Weakest underlying xG 1.04 xGA 4.44 xGD -3.40
  11. Sat 06/12 SC Freiburg H xG 2.22 xGA 0.84 xGD +1.38
  12. Sat 22/11 Borussia M'gladbach H xG 0.33 xGA 2.18 P xGD -1.85
  13. Sat 01/11 Eintracht Frankfurt H xG 0.62 xGA 0.94 xGD -0.32
  14. Sat 18/10 SV Werder Bremen H Best underlying xG 3.00 xGA 1.33 xGD +1.67
  15. Sat 27/09 FC Augsburg H xG 1.24 xGA 0.82 P xGD +0.42
  16. Sat 13/09 Borussia Dortmund H xG 0.40 xGA 2.76 xGD -2.36
  17. Sat 23/08 VfL Wolfsburg H xG 0.72 xGA 2.45 P xGD -1.73

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 4.44. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

1. FC Heidenheim in Bundesliga

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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